NT redistribution – margins published

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The Northern Territory’s electoral boundaries for territory elections were redrawn last year, but until now I haven’t been in a position to calculate the redistribution margins.

This task is made more complicated by the large number of voters who don’t vote at a local polling place, particularly in rural electorates where a large portion of the vote is cast through remote teams without information about the geographic origin of the votes. There are also very few polling places which means each one covers a larger part of the seat. In one case an electorate did not have a single ordinary polling place in 2016.

It’s also the case that margins, even if they are perfectly accurate, are less relevant in an election where small numbers of voters make up each electorate, where party allegiances are not as solid in larger jurisdictions, and where the incumbent MP has a lot more influence.

But I’ve managed to do my best to transfer polling places, sometimes fractionally, and then transfer the remaining votes in proportion to the population movements, and have come up with a set of margins below the fold.

I’ve previously described the changes here and here. Antony Green has also calculated his own estimates.

The biggest change in the margins has taken place in the southern outback seat of Namatjira. I estimate that the Labor margin in this seat has been cut from 8.5% to 1.1%. Antony goes further and estimates the seat with a 2% CLP margin. This electorate took in a large number of voters from the two Alice Springs electorates which are usually amongst the most conservative in the state, so this rings true.

Below the fold I’ve included a table of margins and a map.

ElectorateOld boundariesNew boundariesIncumbent party
Arafura4.79.7 ALP vs CLP
Araluen8.28.1 IND vs CLP
Arnhem14.38.0 ALP vs CLP
Barkly8.09.8 ALP vs IND
Blain1.41.4 IND vs ALP
Braitling0.33.0 ALP vs CLP
Brennan2.62.8 ALP vs CLP
Casuarina11.311.7 ALP vs CLP
Daly2.31.3 CLP vs ALP
Drysdale5.25.2 ALP vs CLP
Fannie Bay14.212.5 ALP vs CLP
Fong Lim7.86.4 ALP vs CLP
Goyder25.325.3 IND vs CLP
Gwoja25.422.4 ALP vs CLP
Johnston14.715.5 ALP vs CLP
Karama0.80.3 ALP vs IND
Katherine0.51.5 ALP vs CLP
Mulka0.10.1 IND vs ALP
Namatjira8.51.1 ALP vs CLP
Nelson23.023.0 IND vs CLP
Nightcliff26.926.4 ALP vs CLP
Port Darwin2.82.8 ALP vs CLP
Sanderson10.510.5 ALP vs CLP
Spillett13.115.4 CLP vs ALP
Wanguri19.919.9 ALP vs CLP
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