Comments on: Tasmanian poll: Greens outpoll Labor

By: jdgang

jdgang — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:55:17 +0000

Simon, I’m not sure what your last sentence means. Here in the A.C.T. the Greens have entered into a formal agreement with the ALP covering most of their key policies, rather than any single or headline issue. This is, I think, the expected trend and something which the Liberals need to understand. Most importantly, and worrying for them, is that the combined non-conservative vote means long term difficulty for the Tories.

By: Simon Baptist

Simon Baptist — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 09:12:36 +0000

Greens voters in Tasmania are desperate for a reason to preference the Liberals. After a decade of governance scandals and an extremely low priority for environmental issues, the natural inclination of Greens voters to (despite that) still preference Labor has been sorely tested. This poll showed that a majority of Greens voters would prefer a minority Liberal to Labor government – which is a pretty exceptional outcome for the Greens in Australia.

If the Liberals would just give the Greens a reason I suspect that the preference flow could shift significantly. It doesn’t need to be anything as far as ‘end old growth logging’; it could be a more constructive pledge for how Hodgman will work constructively with them after the election, or a Tarkine National Park, or a roll-back of Poker machines etc.

The Greens are likely to have 0.3 of a quota in a few seats looking for a home, and that would be decisive in deciding the last seat; especially where there are a number of electorates where 4 non-sitting MPs are fighting for a vacant seat.

On the Greens side, this and the recent result in the ACT highlight the fact that they will need to move away from the idea that the Libs are, by definition, anathema.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 05:21:42 +0000

Sorry, I was saying Hamish’s point was not true. Stewart, I think the 8% undecided is a reference to a poll conducted before the 2006 election.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 05:15:33 +0000

No that’s not true. The original figures before undecided voters were pushed had the ALP on 21%. It’s hard to find a reference to that, but it is included in Kevin Bonham’s article. I accidentally linked to the February poll at the top of the blog post.

By: Stewart J

Stewart J — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 05:11:54 +0000

The material William appears to be working with is from the Examiner story. Kevin Bonham appears to have the full breakdown so I assume it was in the paper version (or he got an inside look!). Bonham also comes up with an 8% undecided, which while high is not 23%! This story was also reported on the ABC last night, so its getting a run.

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 04:59:47 +0000

Sorry to be pedanctic but support for Labor is actually 23%. The Greens are 1% behind, not ahead of the Labor primary vote.