11:35 – I’ll leave this liveblog here. Sorry I wasn’t around much, hopefully you found my posts at the Guardian. Apologies also if you had trouble accessing parts of the website. Hopefully it will be easy to access now. Unfortunately that’s probably the reality as long as this website is a one-man operation – for some big elections it will struggle to serve demand. I’ve written a piece summarising the seats in play at the Guardian. In short, I still have 7 seats in doubt. The Coalition will need to win four to hold their majority. I will be back tomorrow with some blog posts, and then more on Monday. I have a few ideas, and am hoping to get a podcast out in the morning.
10:56 – I have eight seats left to be decided. The government will need to win at least four of them to win a majority, and they currently lead in five. These seats include Barwon (likely SFF), Dubbo (likely IND), Coogee (likely ALP), Lismore (likely GRN or ALP), Wollondilly (unclear IND or NAT), and East Hills, Coffs Harbour and Upper Hunter (likely Coalition).
10:15 – Let’s have a quick look at the upper house. We’ve got less than 20% of the vote counted, so it’s quite early, but we do have a sense of how the bigger parties are performing.
The Coalition is sitting on 7.3 quotas, with Labor on 6.2 quotas. The Greens are just over 2 quotas, with One Nation on 1.4 quotas and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers on 1.3 quotas. That adds up to 17 out of 21 seats decided on primary votes, assuming the percentages don’t change dramatically.
Fred Nile’s Christian Democratic Party is on 0.45 quotas while Animal Justice is on 0.37 quotas.
But there’s over 13% of the vote in the ‘others’ pile. This includes all below-the-line votes, above-the-line votes for other groups, and informal votes with markings on the paper.
We don’t have a sense of the primary vote for Keep Sydney Open, Sustainable Australia, Liberal Democratic Party or Jeremy Buckingham.
We do get a little bit of a sense by looking at the lower house primary votes. Sustainable Australia, who ran in 58 out of 93 seats, are on 1.5% of the vote. Keep Sydney Open are running in 42 out of 93 seats and have polled 1.3% so far. It seems entirely possible that either party could poll over 2% and have a chance at winning one of the final upper house seats.
9:24 – I have just called Ballina for the Greens with an increased majority, and Murray for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. It’s remarkable to say this, but Murray is the only seat that has changed hands so far tonight.
I have 14 seats not yet called.
There are three particularly complex seats where we don’t have a preference count. The Greens are leading Labor by about 4% in Lismore, but the two-candidate-preferred count is Labor vs Nationals (which Labor is winning for what it’s worth) and ex-Greens independent Sally Townley is leading Labor by about 1% in Coffs Harbour. Local mayor Judy Hannan is on 20% of the primary vote in Wollondilly, well ahead of Labor. In all three cases these challengers are trailing the Coalition on the primary vote, and we won’t have a two-candidate-preferred count tonight.
We then have 11 other seats where the count is too early or close to call, and we’ll just have to keep tracking those throughout this evening, gradually calling them as more votes pile up. This includes the Labor seats of Kogarah, Rockdale, Strathfield and the Entrance, as well as the Coalition seats of Barwon, Coogee, Dubbo, East Hills, Penrith, Tweed and Upper Hunter.
8:35 – The Nationals look shaky in a number of regional electorates where they are competing with minor parties, but so far we haven’t been able to call a single seat gain for Labor.
Labor has failed to gain any of the seats in the range pf 6.6% to 9.7%: Oatley, Goulburn, Holsworthy, Heathcote, Bega, Kiama, Myall Lakes, Seven Hills, Terrigal, South Coast, Mulgoa and Clarence.
8:14 – Let’s look at the seats in the 6-10% margin. The Coalition has retained Oatley, Holsworthy, Heathcote, Kiama, Terrigal, South Coast and Mulgoa. I’m still watching Penrith, Goulburn, Bega, Myall Lakes and Seven Hills but a number of these seats are leaning to the government.
7:58 – Sorry about my absence, you might want to check out my analysis on the Guardian liveblog. Labor doesn’t look like they are picking up enough seats to form government, but it’s still early.
7:18 – We’re starting to get some real results here. There isn’t much of a sense of marginal seats flipping between the major parties, while the Greens and the Shooters look good.
6:00 – Polls have just closed across New South Wales. Join me as we cover tonight’s results.