NSW 2019 – how about the Shooters?

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One of the most interesting features of this election is the radically increased significance of the party now called the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

The Shooters Party was founded in 1992 by John Tingle, who won a seat in the NSW upper house in 1995. The party has won a seat at every election since 2003, as well as winning seats in the Victorian and Western Australian upper houses since 2014 and 2013 respectively.

The party has gained ground at every state election in New South Wales since 2003, polling just under 4% in 2015.

The party adopted its current name of Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF from here on in) in early 2016, before the big success of the Orange by-election.

The coalition government gained enough seats in the Legislative Council at the 2015 election to allow them to pass legislation with just two extra votes, which they usually got from Fred Nile’s Christian Democratic Party. The alliance between the government and SFF broke down, leading to the Shooters deciding to run a candidate for the by-election in Orange in November 2016.

The Shooters have traditionally avoided contesting lower house seats, with not a single candidate running in the 2015 election. But things have changed.

The Shooters ended up winning Orange by 50 votes after preferences, thanks to a 34% swing against the Nationals on primary votes and the benefit of preferences from Labor and independents.

They haven’t yet been able to replicate this success, but they did perform very strongly in by-elections in the two neighbouring seats of Cootamundra and Murray in 2017. The SFF polled 23.3% in Cootamundra but didn’t make the final count, while they polled over 30% in Murray and reached almost 47% of the two-candidate-preferred vote.

The SFF polled 10% in the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election in a slightly more urbanised seat despite a strong independent, which suggests that they have a strong underlying support base in regional NSW which has grown since 2015.

Since they have never seriously contested the Legislative Assembly before, it’s useful to look at the distribution of their vote in the upper house in 2015.

Their vote was clearly highest in large rural western NSW seats. The party polled over 13% in Upper Hunter, as well as over 10% in Tamworth, Northern Tablelands, Barwon, Murray, Cessnock, Clarence, Cootamundra and Dubbo. Orange was ranked tenth.

There appear to be four seats where the Shooters have a realistic chance of winning. These are the Shooters seat of Orange and three Nationals seats: Murray, Cootamundra and Barwon. They are benefiting from Labor preferences in all four of these seats, which could be crucial in a close race.

While the Shooters have clearly picked up ground in western NSW from the Nationals, there were concerns about how they would be impacted by the return of One Nation. While One Nation could dent their upper house vote, they are only running in one potential Shooters seat: One Nation are fiercely opposing repeat Shooters candidate Helen Dalton after claiming that she has pledged to support a Labor government (it’s not clear if there’s any truth to this claim).

We have seen some limited polling showing the Shooters in with a shot in both Barwon and Murray. While it will be a big effort for the Shooters to win in all their seats they have a good chance and will be worth watching.

Of course the Shooters are also a factor in the upper house. The party dumped their sitting MLC Robert Brown in their recent preselection in favour of Mark Banasiak. The party will be in fierce competition with One Nation, the Christian Democrats and the Liberal Democrats. The Shooters shouldn’t have any trouble holding their one seat but while there has been an increase in their support since the last election this will likely be dampened by One Nation.

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20 COMMENTS

  1. They are advocating vote 1 only in their how to vote but….. they are also contesting seats such as upper hunter where labor is very competitive and Clarence and Barwon which in the right circumstances alp can win….
    The Nat vote is bad…. so they need to consider carefully

  2. It will be interesting to see how the Shooters party fares in the NSW state election, given that polling day is about a week after a shooter from NSW massacred about 50 New Zealanders in a terrorist attack against New Zealand.

  3. Bret Busby – No relationship with the NZ incident what so ever and no way to compare the vote in Australia either. Sporting shooters are harmless who shot at clay and paper targets and kill vermin (rabbits, foxes, deer etc) in the bush.

    As a former infantry Army officer (1972-1995) I knew a bit about firearms and school boy rabbit shooter on aunts and uncles farms during the school holidays I view the nutter(s) in NZ as just that with nothing to do with voting in Australia.

    More to the point I wonder how the right wing TV, radio and newspaper motor mouths will react. It is them that are stirring up hate for Muslims as well as some conservative MP’s who will soon loose there seats at the federal election.

    Apparently in NZ a shooting licence is strictly controlled, like in Australia, but the registration of arms is less strict in NZ according to ABC TV news yesterday.

  4. Adrian
    I agree that their is no connection between Nutter in NZ and Sporting Shooter voters. There is however a link between philosophy of racial hatred displayed the neo fascist groups in Australia and the neo fascist ideology that I read this morning. This neo fascist ideology is seditious and Sedition should still be a criminal offence. Terrorism should be a hanging offence and seditious uttering a 14 year sentence. We need state Police Special branches re-established to actively seek out arrest and prosecute subversives.
    It matters not one iota wether the subversive is an eco fascist an Islamo fascist or a fascist.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  5. The Christchurch incident will hurt the Shooters chances.

    If I remember correctly they were on track to win Cootamundra and Murray in the byelections, then the Vegas shooting happened, and the Nationals ran a very successful last minute campaign against that party’s desire to weaken gun laws.

    I haven’t verified the numbers but I think Labor to Shooters preference flows were weaker in Murray than in Orange despite Labor HTVs preferencing them in both cases, and the Shooters actually failed to overtake the ALP in Cootamundra.

    I don’t think Donato is safe in Orange any more (Orange might be the only L/NP gain of the night), nor are they guaranteed an upper house seat despite a perfect ballot draw. Shooters might do well in seats with very well coordinated “number every box” campaigns, but in Murray, where Helen Dalton was far and a way the most compelling alternative to Nats, I think they’re going to lose a lot of ground.

  6. The Aussie “nutter” in NZ was not a law abiding sporting shooter in the traditional sense. He was a fitness instructor who has recently travelled oversea, including to places like Pakistan, were according to online media he liked the place for its beauty and the nice people.

    Anyhow this shooting was premeditated and well planned and executed and not a spur of the moment incident so he is obviously insane, like so many “nutters” who commit mass murder are.

    Most other shooting in Australia, like the recent ones in northern suburbs of Melbourne, are committed by criminal scum with unlicensed and unregistered firearms too. Same with the gangland killing 20 years again in Melbourne. They is a different group of people compared to this “nutter” on NZ.

  7. Adrian Jackson (and others pof the same views) –


    News.com.au political reporter Sam Clench wrote: “The Australian senator currently spewing racist garbage in response to the New Zealand mosque attack got 19 votes at the last election. Nineteen. Maybe we need to rethink our electoral system.”

    So, the nutters are also in the feral parliament.

    And, it shows a drastic problem with the electoral system, where, apart from the elimination of the public being able to choose the members of the parliament (that the constitution does not allow the public to choose the members of the parliament, has been made clear, by a previous chief judge of the high court of australia), the public can not sack delinquent members of the feral parliament.

    And, whatever you and some others may say, the facts of the matter, remain.

    The political party to which this refers, is referred to, as the Shooters party.

    This refers to an election currently being held in NSW.

    The artic;le refers to the prospects of the Shooters party in the current NSW state election.

    That election pollingg day, is about a week after a shooter from NSW instituted a terrorist massacre in a foreign, previously relatively peaceful country, that had mostly been friends with Australia.

    In all of the circumstances, it WILL be interesting, to see how the Shooters party fares in the election, after the shooter from NSW instituted a terrorist massacre in a peaceful setting.

    Of course, if, like Faser Anning, YOU are of the opinion that it is no big deal, as you too, happen to believe that the Master Race has triumphed over defenceless and vulnerable victims, then, that is your choice.

  8. I viewed the Anning incident when he was attacked by an uncooked runny egg, funny stuff. As I said before the problem is preferential voting were every box has to be numbered with consecutive numbers (eg) 7 candidates have to be numbered 1 through to 7 regardless of if I had a low opinion of some candidates. Imagine if the Mao party, Stalin party, Pol Pot party or the Hitler party were registered I would have to place these candidate with a number on the ballot paper.

  9. The egg attack was immature and assault technically too but the police let him off but what if the young egg terrorist attacked with the stuff used by the North Korea’s against Kim’s relative in Thailand?

  10. “Mr Daley is under renewed pressure over the preference swap in the wake of the deadly shootings in Christchurch, which once again put the issue of gun control on the political agenda.

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party has previously demanded the relaxation of the National Firearms Agreement introduced by John Howard, and continues to advocate for a review of the administration of the firearms act in New South Wales.”

    “The Premier Gladys Berejiklian today echoed her warning that Labor’s preference deal with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party sent a dangerous message.

    “It concerns me because it legitimises a party, being the Shooters Party, who support the reduction or dilution of our guns laws,” Ms Berejiklian said.

    During the election campaign Ms Berejiklian has repeatedly ruled out accepting the support of Shooters MPs to form government if the voters deliver a hung parliament.

    She urged Mr Daley to do the same.

    “The Shooters support giving guns to 10-year-olds, they support bringing semi-automatics into NSW,” Ms Berejiklian said.

    “I don’t stand for that, I never have, I never will. And I think the Labor leader and his party need to make the same call,” she said.

    When asked whether he would accept the Shooters numbers’ to secure minority government in a hung parliament, Mr Daley said he “wouldn’t get into hypotheticals”.”

    So, I again say that the Christchurch massacre by the white Australian shooter from NSW, will likely have an effect on the NSW state election.

    And, he was most probably radicalised in Australia, with the nature of white Australian supremacists.

    One thing that is conspicuous by its absence, is any public statement from both the Shooters party, and, the SSAA, condemning the shooting, and making a public statement, such as “We condemn the massacre in Christchurch, New Zealand, especicially, the involvement of a shooter from NSW, and, we strongly maintain that, in no circumstances, should a civilian use a firearm against another person.”

    It is conspicuos that, two days after thre massacre, both the Shooters party and the SSAA, are silent, indicating apparent, passive support for the massacre.

  11. Adrian Jackson –
    “Interesting that Sen Anning and the NZ attacker are both from wacky Queensland.”

    I understood that the AUSTRALIAN attacker against NZ, is from Grafton, NSW.

    “Brenton Tarrant, from Grafton in northern New South Wales, is remanded in custody until April 5 after facing a New Zealand court charged with murder.”

    I hope that both he and Anning, have their Australian passports cancelled, and, lifetime bans on holding Australian passports.

    That is, if Australia’s “security” establishment is about anything other than deporting non-whites, including, deporting Aborigines.

  12. Adrian – I suppose it is that, “the further north a person goes, the closer to the equator, and, the hotter, the head gets”?

    🙂

    I notice that Barnaby “Must have more coal powerr!” Joyce is also northern NSW, from the Wikipedia map.

    ‘Nuff said abouth northern NSW, and its creatures…

  13. With the issues involved in this, compounded by the deals between the NSW ALP leader and the Shooters party, this may now lead to the NSW ALP leader losing an unlosable state election, and, may lead to the feral ALP losing an unlosable feral election.

    Whatever people may think about the supposed dissociation of the Australian shooter involved in the massacre at Christchurch, from the Shooters party and the SSAA, the continuing deafening silence of both the Shooters party and the SSAA, regarding the massacre, will likely affect the prospects of the Shooters party, in upcoming elections, and, taint the prospects of any party or candidate, who makes preference or other deals, with the Shooters party.

    It comes down to the perception of voters, regardless of all else.

    And, the Australian federal parliament and, the NZ parliament, both must should part of the blame for the massacre.

    I have looked at the NZ Arms Act 1983, and, the list of firearms allowed for the firearms licence legally held by the shooter.

    Whoever enacted that Act of parliament, is certifiably dangerous It is an Act to encourage terrorism and USA style terrorist militias.

    And, the Australian feral parliament, which banned human rights in Australia, and, is involved in citing religious hatred and conflict, is also responsible.

    Julia Gillard and Brandis, in their sinister relationship, decided that Australians are sub-human, and, not entitled to Human Rights. And, the “Greens” party provided confidence and supply, for the feral government that banned human rights in Australia.

    The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which requires outlawing of hate speech

    (See Articles 18 and 19, and, Article 20(2);

    “2. Any advocacy of national, racial or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination,
    hostility or violence shall be prohibited by law.”
    )

    is falsely reported by the feral parliament, internationally, as “having entered into force in Australia”, about 40 years ago, but, is “of no effect in Australia” – high court of Australia, and, the only Act of the feral parliament, which relates to discrimination, has had the feral government, including George Brandis, attempt to make s18c, ineffective, and, conspicuously, that Act, as with the feral parliament, encourages religious vilification.

    And, A major actor in promoting racial and religious vilification in Australia, was sent as an agent for that cause, by the feral parliament, to England, to radicalise white englishmen.

    So, the feral parliament, in its contempt for human rights, and, its encouragement of religious vilification has made Australia a breeding ground for white supremacists and religious fanatics, like the shooter and fraser anning.

    Therefore, the radicalisation of the shooter, likely occurred in Australia, and, he was assisted by the dangerous Arms Act 1983, of NZ, and, the dangerous government responsible for that Act.

    But, the public will make a connection between the SSA and its political wing; the Shooters party and anyone who supports them, and the Australian shooter from NSW, who instituted the terrorist attack in NZ.

  14. Of course, it is not only NZ that has been irresponsible with firearms legislation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-11/gun-data-shows-extent-of-private-arsenals-in-suburban-australia/9038350 has some interesting information – in NSW (LNP state government), several people own(ed) private arsenals of over 200 firearms each – up to 312 firearms in an arsenal. That is enough to arm all of the rifleman companies in an infantry battalion. So, it is enough, to arm a militia. Each of those arsenals that is enough to arm a militia, is privately owned by an individual.

    No civilian can justify; in the case of a farmer, owning more than two rifles and a shotgun, in the case of a hobby target shooter, owning more than one or two rifles.

    The shooter in the Christchurch massacres, was allowed to legally own four rifles and a shotgun, which is inexcusable – in both Australia and New Zealand, the limits that I stated, should be the legal limits.

    So, in the context of the article above, and, the Christchurch massacre, and, the deafening silence from the SSAA and its political wing; the Shooters party, I wonder who will be pushing for some sort of firearms control, in both the NSW state election, and, the upcoming feral election. Of course, it is not only NZ that has been irresponsible with firearms legislation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-11/gun-data-shows-extent-of-private-arsenals-in-suburban-australia/9038350 has some interesting information – in NSW (LNP state government), several people own(ed) private arsenals of over 200 firearms each – up to 312 firearms in an arsenal. That is enough to arm all of the rifleman companies in an infantry battalion. So, it is enough, to arm a militia. Each of those arsenals that is enough to arm a militia, is privately owned by an individual.

    No civilian can justify; in the case of a farmer, owning more than two rifles and a shotgun, in the case of a hobby target shooter, owning more than one or two rifles.

    The shooter in the Christchurch massacres, was allowed to legally own four rifles and a shotgun, which is inexcusable – in both Australia and New Zealand, the limits that I stated, should be the legal limits.

    So, in the context of the article above, and, the Christchurch massacre, and, the deafening silence from the SSAA and its political wing; the Shooters party, I wonder who will be pushing for some sort of firearms control, in both the NSW state election, and, the upcoming feral election.

  15. Adrian Jackson – ” Well the SFF did OK tonight as I thought.”

    Well, the SFF WAS supported and helped along, by the ALP and its minions.

    And, NSW is the home of the shooter who used his multiple firearms in the Christchurch massacre, making Port Arthur look trivial.

    And, NSW is the home of Mark Latham, Barnaby Joyce, Alan Jones, and, the Cronulla Riots.

    An interesting question, is whether the private arsenals to which NSW is also home, with each arsenal being enough to arm a separate militia, are, together, enough to outgun the rifle companies of the Australian army.

  16. Bret – Armoured Fighting Vehicle fire and Royal Australian Air Force airstrikes would work to put down insurgents in an emergency in NSW. Just like at the Eureka Stockade rebellion in Ballarat in the early 1850’s.

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