I haven’t really been covering the campaign for the Victorian state electorate of Altona before today’s by-election. Altona is a safe Labor seat in the Western suburbs of Melbourne, sitting on Port Philip Bay.
Altona is going to the polls to elect a successor to former Education Minister and Transport Minister Lynne Kosky. The Liberal Party has bucked the tradition of major parties not contesting by-elections in another party’s safe seat, running a candidate in the by-election. It seems extremely unlikely the Liberals could win, but this will be seen as a barometer of support in Victorian politics leading into a state election year, with a state election scheduled for late November 2010.
I will be participating in a liveblog at independent news site theangle.org tonight as the results come in. You can expect coverage elsewhere from Antony Green at ABC Elections and William Bowe at the Poll Bludger. You can read more about the by-election at ABC Elections, The Angle and Poll Bludger.
State electoral district of Altona, indicated within Melbourne's electoral districts, showing results of the 2006 election.
My picks, previously mentioned on Poll Bludger:
ALP 50
Lib 30
Grn 10
Mumby 5
Nain 2 (donkey vote)
Shaw, Rixon, SA: 1 each
2pp: ALP 63%. A largish but harmless swing against Labor, chalked up equally to it being a by-election, there being more candidates than the last few times, and Labor just not being as popular as in the landslides of 2002 and 2006.
And a very chancy second bet: Liz Mumby, the only independent with any kind of profile, to go under the radar, come second and challenge Labor the same way Carol Adams did in Kwinana in WA last state election (check the areas, they’re very similar). That’s doubtful to happen though.
Also, a list of candidates, in ballot order:
Brijender Nain
Liz Mumby
Margarita Windisch (Socialist Alliance)
Mark Rose (Liberal)
David Strangward (Green)
Andrew Rixon
Brian Shaw
Jill Hennessy (Labor)
Andrew Rixon’s website has to be seen to be believed, here:
http://www.andrewrixon.com.au/
He’s heavily enough mentally ill to possibly be barred from taking his seat if he somehow wins… yet he tries anyway. Ya gotta love that.
There’s also Brian Shaw. He is batshit crazy, as shown by any link you care to click here:
http://www.elijahschallenge.net/legal/legal.htm
And also was connected to One Nation in WA, where he spoke at a meeting in Carlisle on “What the Government does not want you to know” about a year ago.
http://www.elijahschallenge.net/calendar/calendar.htm
I wish there’d been a proper campaign for this by-election, so that these two guys could’ve brought some much-needed lulz. As it is, though, they’ll be bringing up the rear.