New federal pendulum after recent redistributions

Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution margins for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, as well as the post-redistribution margins for the draft boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.

I’ve included this pendulum below the fold, but you can also find it at this link. I’ve now posted the pendulum, along with a list of seats in alphabetical order and a list of seats by state, on the federal election guide. There are now twenty seat guides posted there, and I will keep posting at least one per day for the foreseeable future. The pendulum below won’t keep getting updated with fresh links but does include the twenty so far.

The only update since yesterday’s post is that I calculated two-candidate-preferred margins between the Liberal Party and the Nick Xenophon Team in Barker, Grey and Mayo. In these three seats, I calculated what proportion of primary votes for all other parties flowed to either of these two parties in the final count in those parts of the seat where NXT made the top two. Some areas were swapped back and forth between Grey and Barker, so they were included as if they had always been in the seat. This proportion was then applied to the remaining primary votes.

The figures are:

  • Barker – LIB vs NXT 4.2% (down from 4.7%)
  • Grey – LIB vs NXT 1.9% (down from 2.0%)
  • Mayo – NXT vs LIB 5.3% (up from 5.0%)

These are all shifts towards the NXT, but they should come with a grain of salt. They fit with the overall trend of the Liberal Party not losing any seats but having all of their seats become more marginal.

Coalition SeatsLabor Seats
Cox (VIC)LIB 0.03%Herbert (QLD)ALP 0.02%
Capricornia (QLD)LNP 0.6%Batman (VIC)ALP 0.7% vs GRN
Forde (QLD)LNP 0.6%Cowan (WA)ALP 0.7%
Gilmore (NSW)LIB 0.7%Longman (QLD)ALP 0.8%
Flynn (QLD)LNP 1%Dunkley (VIC)ALP 1%
Robertson (NSW)LIB 1.1%Lindsay (NSW)ALP 1.1%
Banks (NSW)LIB 1.4%Macnamara (VIC)ALP 1.2%
Petrie (QLD)LNP 1.6%Griffith (QLD)ALP 1.4%
Dickson (QLD)LNP 1.7%Braddon (TAS)ALP 1.7%
Grey (SA)LIB 1.9% vs NXTMacquarie (NSW)ALP 2.2%
Hasluck (WA)LIB 2.1%Eden-Monaro (NSW)ALP 2.9%
Page (NSW)NAT 2.3%Isaacs (VIC)ALP 3.1%
Boothby (SA)LIB 2.7%Perth (WA)ALP 3.3%
Chisholm (VIC)LIB 3%Lyons (TAS)ALP 3.8%
La Trobe (VIC)LIB 3.3%Bendigo (VIC)ALP 3.9%
Bonner (QLD)LNP 3.4%Moreton (QLD)ALP 4%
Dawson (QLD)LNP 3.4%Richmond (NSW)ALP 4%
Pearce (WA)LIB 3.6%Hotham (VIC)ALP 4.1%
Swan (WA)LIB 3.6%Dobell (NSW)ALP 4.8%
Leichhardt (QLD)LNP 3.9%Wills (VIC)ALP 4.9% vs GRN
Barker (SA)LIB 4.2% vs NXTBass (TAS)ALP 5.4%
Casey (VIC)LIB 4.5%Jagajaga (VIC)ALP 5.6%
Cowper (NSW)NAT 4.6% vs INDLilley (QLD)ALP 5.7%
Reid (NSW)LIB 4.7%McEwen (VIC)ALP 5.9%
Sturt (SA)LIB 5.4%Solomon (NT)ALP 6.1%
Brisbane (QLD)LNP 6%Greenway (NSW)ALP 6.3%
Stirling (WA)LIB 6.1%Burt (WA)ALP 7.1%
Deakin (VIC)LIB 6.3%Ballarat (VIC)ALP 7.4%
Canning (WA)LIB 6.8%Fremantle (WA)ALP 7.5%
Flinders (VIC)LIB 7%Parramatta (NSW)ALP 7.7%
Bowman (QLD)LNP 7.1%Blair (QLD)ALP 8.1%
Monash (VIC)LIB 7.5%Werriwa (NSW)ALP 8.2%
Higgins (VIC)LIB 7.6% vs GRNLingiari (NT)ALP 8.2%
Aston (VIC)LIB 7.6%Barton (NSW)ALP 8.3%
Menzies (VIC)LIB 7.8%Macarthur (NSW)ALP 8.3%
Wide Bay (QLD)LNP 8.2%Adelaide (SA)ALP 8.3%
Hinkler (QLD)LNP 8.4%Corio (VIC)ALP 8.3%
New England (NSW)NAT 8.5% vs INDHindmarsh (SA)ALP 8.4%
Ryan (QLD)LNP 9%Kingsford Smith (NSW)ALP 8.6%
Fisher (QLD)LNP 9.2%Bean (ACT)ALP 8.9%
Hughes (NSW)LIB 9.3%Oxley (QLD)ALP 9%
Wannon (VIC)LIB 9.4%Holt (VIC)ALP 9.7%
Wright (QLD)LNP 9.6%Shortland (NSW)ALP 9.9%
Bennelong (NSW)LIB 9.7%Maribyrnong (VIC)ALP 10.5%
Hume (NSW)LIB 10.2%Paterson (NSW)ALP 10.7%
Fairfax (QLD)LNP 10.9%Franklin (TAS)ALP 10.7%
Moore (WA)LIB 11%Makin (SA)ALP 10.8%
Tangney (WA)LIB 11.1%Rankin (QLD)ALP 11.3%
Durack (WA)LIB 11.1%Brand (WA)ALP 11.4%
Fadden (QLD)LNP 11.2%Fenner (ACT)ALP 11.8%
Warringah (NSW)LIB 11.6% vs GRNMcMahon (NSW)ALP 12.1%
Lyne (NSW)NAT 11.6%Hunter (NSW)ALP 12.5%
McPherson (QLD)LNP 11.6%Canberra (ACT)ALP 12.9%
Calare (NSW)NAT 11.8%Cunningham (NSW)ALP 13.3%
Forrest (WA)LIB 12.6%Kingston (SA)ALP 13.5%
Goldstein (VIC)LIB 12.7%Whitlam (NSW)ALP 13.7%
Kooyong (VIC)LIB 12.7%Newcastle (NSW)ALP 13.8%
North Sydney (NSW)LIB 13.6%Bruce (VIC)ALP 14.2%
Moncrieff (QLD)LNP 14.6%Lalor (VIC)ALP 14.2%
O’Connor (WA)LIB 15%Gellibrand (VIC)ALP 15.1%
Parkes (NSW)NAT 15.1%Sydney (NSW)ALP 15.3%
Groom (QLD)LNP 15.3%Grayndler (NSW)ALP 15.8% vs GRN
Cook (NSW)LIB 15.4%Spence (SA)ALP 17.1%
Mackellar (NSW)LIB 15.7%Fowler (NSW)ALP 17.5%
Maranoa (QLD)LNP 15.9% vs ONWatson (NSW)ALP 17.6%
Berowra (NSW)LIB 16.4%Gorton (VIC)ALP 18.5%
Riverina (NSW)NAT 16.4%Chifley (NSW)ALP 19.2%
Wentworth (NSW)LIB 17.7%Blaxland (NSW)ALP 19.5%
Mitchell (NSW)LIB 17.8%Calwell (VIC)ALP 19.7%
Gippsland (VIC)NAT 18.3%Fraser (VIC)ALP 19.8%
Mallee (VIC)NAT 20.1%Scullin (VIC)ALP 20%
Farrer (NSW)LIB 20.5%
Curtin (WA)LIB 20.7%Indi (VIC)IND 4.9% vs LIB
Bradfield (NSW)LIB 21%Mayo (SA)NXT 5.3% vs LIB
Nicholls (VIC)NAT 22.4%Kennedy (QLD)KAP 10.6% vs LNP
Clark (TAS)IND 17.8% vs ALP
Melbourne (VIC)GRN 18.5% vs LIB
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About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.