New federal pendulum after recent redistributions

13

Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution margins for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, as well as the post-redistribution margins for the draft boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.

I’ve included this pendulum below the fold, but you can also find it at this link. I’ve now posted the pendulum, along with a list of seats in alphabetical order and a list of seats by state, on the federal election guide. There are now twenty seat guides posted there, and I will keep posting at least one per day for the foreseeable future. The pendulum below won’t keep getting updated with fresh links but does include the twenty so far.

The only update since yesterday’s post is that I calculated two-candidate-preferred margins between the Liberal Party and the Nick Xenophon Team in Barker, Grey and Mayo. In these three seats, I calculated what proportion of primary votes for all other parties flowed to either of these two parties in the final count in those parts of the seat where NXT made the top two. Some areas were swapped back and forth between Grey and Barker, so they were included as if they had always been in the seat. This proportion was then applied to the remaining primary votes.

The figures are:

  • Barker – LIB vs NXT 4.2% (down from 4.7%)
  • Grey – LIB vs NXT 1.9% (down from 2.0%)
  • Mayo – NXT vs LIB 5.3% (up from 5.0%)

These are all shifts towards the NXT, but they should come with a grain of salt. They fit with the overall trend of the Liberal Party not losing any seats but having all of their seats become more marginal.

Coalition SeatsLabor Seats
SeatMarginSeatMargin
Cox (VIC)LIB 0.03%Herbert (QLD)ALP 0.02%
Capricornia (QLD)LNP 0.6%Batman (VIC)ALP 0.7% vs GRN
Forde (QLD)LNP 0.6%Cowan (WA)ALP 0.7%
Gilmore (NSW)LIB 0.7%Longman (QLD)ALP 0.8%
Flynn (QLD)LNP 1%Dunkley (VIC)ALP 1%
Robertson (NSW)LIB 1.1%Lindsay (NSW)ALP 1.1%
Banks (NSW)LIB 1.4%Macnamara (VIC)ALP 1.2%
Petrie (QLD)LNP 1.6%Griffith (QLD)ALP 1.4%
Dickson (QLD)LNP 1.7%Braddon (TAS)ALP 1.7%
Grey (SA)LIB 1.9% vs NXTMacquarie (NSW)ALP 2.2%
Hasluck (WA)LIB 2.1%Eden-Monaro (NSW)ALP 2.9%
Page (NSW)NAT 2.3%Isaacs (VIC)ALP 3.1%
Boothby (SA)LIB 2.7%Perth (WA)ALP 3.3%
Chisholm (VIC)LIB 3%Lyons (TAS)ALP 3.8%
La Trobe (VIC)LIB 3.3%Bendigo (VIC)ALP 3.9%
Bonner (QLD)LNP 3.4%Moreton (QLD)ALP 4%
Dawson (QLD)LNP 3.4%Richmond (NSW)ALP 4%
Pearce (WA)LIB 3.6%Hotham (VIC)ALP 4.1%
Swan (WA)LIB 3.6%Dobell (NSW)ALP 4.8%
Leichhardt (QLD)LNP 3.9%Wills (VIC)ALP 4.9% vs GRN
Barker (SA)LIB 4.2% vs NXTBass (TAS)ALP 5.4%
Casey (VIC)LIB 4.5%Jagajaga (VIC)ALP 5.6%
Cowper (NSW)NAT 4.6% vs INDLilley (QLD)ALP 5.7%
Reid (NSW)LIB 4.7%McEwen (VIC)ALP 5.9%
Sturt (SA)LIB 5.4%Solomon (NT)ALP 6.1%
Brisbane (QLD)LNP 6%Greenway (NSW)ALP 6.3%
Stirling (WA)LIB 6.1%Burt (WA)ALP 7.1%
Deakin (VIC)LIB 6.3%Ballarat (VIC)ALP 7.4%
Canning (WA)LIB 6.8%Fremantle (WA)ALP 7.5%
Flinders (VIC)LIB 7%Parramatta (NSW)ALP 7.7%
Bowman (QLD)LNP 7.1%Blair (QLD)ALP 8.1%
Monash (VIC)LIB 7.5%Werriwa (NSW)ALP 8.2%
Higgins (VIC)LIB 7.6% vs GRNLingiari (NT)ALP 8.2%
Aston (VIC)LIB 7.6%Barton (NSW)ALP 8.3%
Menzies (VIC)LIB 7.8%Macarthur (NSW)ALP 8.3%
Wide Bay (QLD)LNP 8.2%Adelaide (SA)ALP 8.3%
Hinkler (QLD)LNP 8.4%Corio (VIC)ALP 8.3%
New England (NSW)NAT 8.5% vs INDHindmarsh (SA)ALP 8.4%
Ryan (QLD)LNP 9%Kingsford Smith (NSW)ALP 8.6%
Fisher (QLD)LNP 9.2%Bean (ACT)ALP 8.9%
Hughes (NSW)LIB 9.3%Oxley (QLD)ALP 9%
Wannon (VIC)LIB 9.4%Holt (VIC)ALP 9.7%
Wright (QLD)LNP 9.6%Shortland (NSW)ALP 9.9%
Bennelong (NSW)LIB 9.7%Maribyrnong (VIC)ALP 10.5%
Hume (NSW)LIB 10.2%Paterson (NSW)ALP 10.7%
Fairfax (QLD)LNP 10.9%Franklin (TAS)ALP 10.7%
Moore (WA)LIB 11%Makin (SA)ALP 10.8%
Tangney (WA)LIB 11.1%Rankin (QLD)ALP 11.3%
Durack (WA)LIB 11.1%Brand (WA)ALP 11.4%
Fadden (QLD)LNP 11.2%Fenner (ACT)ALP 11.8%
Warringah (NSW)LIB 11.6% vs GRNMcMahon (NSW)ALP 12.1%
Lyne (NSW)NAT 11.6%Hunter (NSW)ALP 12.5%
McPherson (QLD)LNP 11.6%Canberra (ACT)ALP 12.9%
Calare (NSW)NAT 11.8%Cunningham (NSW)ALP 13.3%
Forrest (WA)LIB 12.6%Kingston (SA)ALP 13.5%
Goldstein (VIC)LIB 12.7%Whitlam (NSW)ALP 13.7%
Kooyong (VIC)LIB 12.7%Newcastle (NSW)ALP 13.8%
North Sydney (NSW)LIB 13.6%Bruce (VIC)ALP 14.2%
Moncrieff (QLD)LNP 14.6%Lalor (VIC)ALP 14.2%
O’Connor (WA)LIB 15%Gellibrand (VIC)ALP 15.1%
Parkes (NSW)NAT 15.1%Sydney (NSW)ALP 15.3%
Groom (QLD)LNP 15.3%Grayndler (NSW)ALP 15.8% vs GRN
Cook (NSW)LIB 15.4%Spence (SA)ALP 17.1%
Mackellar (NSW)LIB 15.7%Fowler (NSW)ALP 17.5%
Maranoa (QLD)LNP 15.9% vs ONWatson (NSW)ALP 17.6%
Berowra (NSW)LIB 16.4%Gorton (VIC)ALP 18.5%
Riverina (NSW)NAT 16.4%Chifley (NSW)ALP 19.2%
Wentworth (NSW)LIB 17.7%Blaxland (NSW)ALP 19.5%
Mitchell (NSW)LIB 17.8%Calwell (VIC)ALP 19.7%
Gippsland (VIC)NAT 18.3%Fraser (VIC)ALP 19.8%
Mallee (VIC)NAT 20.1%Scullin (VIC)ALP 20%
Farrer (NSW)LIB 20.5%
Curtin (WA)LIB 20.7%Indi (VIC)IND 4.9% vs LIB
Bradfield (NSW)LIB 21%Mayo (SA)NXT 5.3% vs LIB
Nicholls (VIC)NAT 22.4%Kennedy (QLD)KAP 10.6% vs LNP
Clark (TAS)IND 17.8% vs ALP
Melbourne (VIC)GRN 18.5% vs LIB
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13 COMMENTS

  1. Do you know why your figures are a bit different to Antony Green’s? Particularly interested in Boothby (2.4 v 4.2)

  2. I don’t know how Antony calculates his figures. Potentially he is adjusting the special votes to reflect the particular parts of the seat that have moved.

    I will at some point replace references to NXT with Centre Alliance in the margins but not yet.

  3. I wonder if Bill Shorten will jump ship to Fraser, from Maribyrnong?

    Maribyrnong is still a fairly safe seat, but it now contains all the good Liberal parts of the north/west suburbs, and has lost a fair chunk of its rock-solid Labor base around Sunshine and St Albans.

    Fraser, however, is safe as houses and would never be under any remotely serious threat from either the Liberals or the Greens.

  4. Mark Mulcair
    Do you think there is any chance of Maribynong going Liberal in the next dozen or so years?

  5. Unlikely in the immediate future, but might depend on how the boundaries are drawn.

    Growth in Moonee Valley will probably see Maribyrnong move east of the river in the medium-longer term. All of Labor’s really strong booths are on the western bank, while the Moonee Valley area is mostly quite marginal, with some good Liberal areas around Moonee Ponds, Essendon, Niddrie and especially Strathmore.

    A seat like David Walsh’s “Fraser”, with all of Moonee Valley plus Liberal-leaning Keilor, might be interesting. However, if it gets pushed further down into Labor-Green Kensington and/or North Melbourne, that would make it very difficult for the Liberals to win.

  6. Thanks. Any thoughts on changing demographics ? As i rememberer it is your home.. Also thanks to you David Walsh, Martin Gordon, Darren McSweeney & others for all your contributions. I realise that dealing with the AEC is like throwing seed on barren ground !

  7. The next Victorian redistribution could be as soon as 2020-21, with current population trends suggesting it could be due a 39th division at the next assessment. (WA will probably lose one, QLD will be borderline, as will the NT – stand by for another legislative save there).

    Projecting the divisional current growth rates to late 2024 (possible projection date unless the AEC opts to shorten it again), I have divisions north and west of the Yarra having an excess of 72% of a 39-division quota, while those south and east (including all of the proposed Menzies) would have an excess of 28%. If the Menzies incursion across the Yarra is reversed, that would provide almost enough capacity to soak up the growth in the south-east (likely Menzies being topped up from Deakin, Deakin extending into proposed Casey, and Casey into proposed La Trobe, which along with Holt accounts for most of the excess).

    That leaves the new division somewhere in the north, and I think a likely option might be something based on the City of Maribyrnong, taking that part of the Division of Maribyrnong (which would be replenished by taking Kensington from Melbourne and maybe Keilor Park from Calwell), along with parts of Gellibrand (which will need to take some electors from Lalor) and the southern part of Fraser, which would instead extend west into Gorton (Hillside and Taylors Hill etc), with Gorton then extending north to take in Sunbury and Gisborne. That would leave McEwen free to mop up the spillage from Jagajaga and Scullin needing to re-integrate the electors currently proposed to spend a term in Menzies.

    All speculation of course and the growth patterns will probably be different. But I’ll be surprised if the next Victorian redistribution doesn’t result in another division somewhere on the north or west of the city.

  8. Adding a 39th seat would depend a lot on election timing. VIC’s population would probably get to 39 quotas for a May 2019 election and June 2020 assessment, but could easily stay at 38 quotas for a September 2018 election and October 2019 assessment.

  9. Agreed that the election timing will likely be decisive for Victoria’s entitlement.

    I just updated my numbers and I now get Queensland as being somewhat safe and WA to almost certainly lose a division. Victoria would be projected to gain one on any assessment completed after late Dec 2019 (i.e. with June 2019 quarterly data available), albeit with some possibility that it could sneak over the threshold one quarter earlier.

Comments are closed.