SA redistribution live

12:30pm – That’s all I’ll be posting today. I’ll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days.

12:26pm – On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has dropped 1.9%, and Labor has jumped by 3.1%, thanks to inclusion of Boothby and Kingston, which were seats where Labor competed much more strongly.

It’s also worth noting that the Liberal-Labor 2PP figure in all three seats where NXT broke into the top two have seen Labor’s position strengthen. I will have to make my own estimates of the LIB vs NXT margin in these three seats, but won’t happen until tomorrow.

12:20pm – So here are the toplines:

  • Labor has lost its sixth seat, thanks to the merger of Port Adelaide and Wakefield into Spence, which is a very safe seat.
  • The extremely marginal Labor seat of Hindmarsh has become reasonably safe, while Adelaide has also got a lot safer, and Makin is a bit safer.
  • It’s hard to predict the margins in Barker, Grey or Mayo because there were parts of these seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn’t involve NXT. So that’s why these margins haven’t changed much. About 86% of Grey and Mayo were already in the seat before the redistribution, while the figure is just over 90% for Barker.
  • The Liberal Party’s position has got weaker in Boothby and Sturt.

12:15pm – Here are my margin estimates.

SeatOld marginNew margin
Adelaide ALP 4.7% ALP 8.3%
Barker LIB vs NXT 4.7% LIB vs NXT 4.2%
Boothby LIB 3.5% LIB 2.7%
Grey LIB vs NXT 2% LIB vs NXT 1.9%
Hindmarsh ALP 0.6% ALP 8.4%
Kingston ALP 17% ALP 13.5%
Makin ALP 9.7% ALP 10.8%
Mayo NXT vs LIB 5% NXT vs LIB 5.3%
Port Adelaide ALP vs NXT 14.9% Abolished
Spence (Wakefield) ALP 11% ALP 17.1%
Sturt LIB 5.9% LIB 5.4%

12:08pm – Here are my estimates of the 2PP and primary vote.

Vote estimates

SeatALP 2PPLNP 2PPALP primLNP primGRN primNXT prim
Adelaide58.341.739.0732.5510.013.7
Barker36.163.916.3245.563.628.6
Boothby47.352.726.9241.678.218.5
Grey42.257.822.542.222.726.7
Hindmarsh58.441.639.9831.36.617.0
Kingston63.536.545.326.165.818.1
Makin60.839.242.727.474.716.7
Mayo46.753.316.6236.628.233.0
Spence67.132.945.0820.784.620.1
Sturt44.655.423.344.387.619.9

11:56am – It turns out the redistribution was released at 11:30am east coast time, not Adelaide time (as predicted by the AEC) so I’m just catching up now. Will have estimates in a few minutes. It appears Wakefield and Port Adelaide have been merged as the seat of Spence.

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