ACT and VIC redistributions live

3:01 – This is my last comment for now. I’ll be working on the boundary map over the weekend and plan to return by Monday with some more analysis. I just wanted to zoom out to the big picture.

Two extra seats were created today, bringing the total seats in the parliament to 152. This will drop back to 151 when the draft boundaries are released in South Australia. We’ve also had 3 other redistributions already finished this term but they all had minor impacts.

The seat totals now are:

  • Coalition – 75 (-1)
  • Labor – 72 (+3)
  • Others – 5 (-)

Labor previously needed a 1% uniform swing to become the largest party. They now need a 0.6% uniform swing. They previously needed a 1.4% swing to become the largest party. If you assume that the abolished SA seat is a Liberal or NXT seat, they will only need a swing of 0.7%. This increases to 1% if Labor loses a seat in the South Australian redistribution.

Overall this is a very good outcome for Labor and, combined with strong polling, puts them in a stronger position to win the next election.

2:45 – Corangamite has shifted east, losing touch with Lake Corangamite (hence the renaming to Cox) and taking in the Bellarine peninsula from Corio. This has almost entirely wiped out Sarah Henderson’s margin. McEwen lost some of its Melbourne fringe area, while also losing Puckapunyal and Seymour to Murray/Nicholls, but gained Macedon. Overall this weakened Labor’s hold on the seat. La Trobe shifted east, to sit more clearly on the eastern fringe of Melbourne, while the Bass Coast area has shifted into McMillan/Monash. Changes to the large rural seats appear to have been small.

2:42 – In the western suburbs, the new seat of Fraser mostly covers the Brimbank council area, taking in areas formerly contained in Maribyrnong, Gellibrand, Gorton and Calwell. All of these seats have been pushed away from the new seat in different directions.

2:36 – There’s been some significant redrawing in the south-east which will make Labor happy. It appears Goldstein has been left alone, Chisholm has shifted north (and become slightly safer for the Liberal Party), and Deakin has shifted east (likewise becoming safer). Isaacs has shifted north, pushing Hotham east, making both Labor seats more marginal. Bruce has shifted west, becoming a lot safer for Labor, and all of these changes have pulled up Dunkley, flipping it from marginal Liberal to marginal Labor.

2:22 – In the north-east, Jagajaga has lost its north-eastern tip and gained territory from Scullin, while Menzies has jumped the Yarra (which has reduced its margin).

2:17 – Changes in central Melbourne are relatively modest. Batman has lost its northern fringe to Scullin (which helps the Greens with the margin based on 2016 results), and gained Coburg North from Wills. Melbourne lost its north-western corner to Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong. Kooyong has expanded slightly on its eastern edge, while Windsor has moved from Higgins into Macnamara.

1:59 – The new electoral boundaries for the ACT improve the Greens chances of breaking through in the lower house (although they are still distant). The old boundaries spread the Greens vote evenly, with about 15% voting Green in both seats in 2016. These new boundaries push up their support in Canberra to 18.7%, while it’s down around 13% in the two other divisions.

1:55 – Now it’s time to take a look at the maps! I’ll be putting together my own interactive maps over the weekend but not for today. Firstly, it’s worth noting that Bean is actually a successor to the old Canberra, taking in Tuggeranong and other southern suburbs. The new Canberra takes in parts of the two old electorates and is centred on Lake Burley Griffin, as Canberra was the last time the ACT had three seats from 1996 to 1998. Here’s that seat’s map:

1:48 – I’ve now updated both tables with the correct numbers. The changes are quite small but please use these updated figures. I’ve now added in estimates for Indi and Higgins. In Indi I ignored a few thousand votes from Murray where we don’t have an IND vs LIB count. In Higgins I counted some Labor two-candidate-preferred from Hotham towards the Greens. In Melbourne I counted some Labor 2CP from Batman and Wills towards the Liberal.

1:24 – Okay I’m revising up my margin of McEwen from 3.6% to 5.9% and Nicholls down from 25.2% to 22.4%.

1:22 – I’m doing some tinkering with my estimates – found a small bug which mainly effected McEwen and Monash.

1:11 – I’ll have plenty to say about the AEC’s policy on naming divisions, but not right now.

1:10 – The Greens are closer to overtaking Michael Danby in his renamed seat of MacNamara. Danby outpolled the Greens by 3.2% to stay in second place on primary votes in 2016, but this gap has dropped to 2.35% on the new boundaries.

1:07 – This gives Labor 72 notional seats, with the Coalition down from 76 to 75, and five independents. Bear in mind that we will see a seat abolished in South Australia next week, so those numbers don’t add up.

1:05 – I can see one seat that has changed hands – Dunkley appears to be a notional Labor seat now. Cox (formerly Corangamite) has almost become a tied seat, while Labor has also gained the two new seats. Labor seats like Holt, Hotham, Isaacs and McEwen have all become more marginal.

1:02 – And here is my estimate of margins

I need to go back and calculate a LIB vs GRN margin for Higgins and also an independent margin for Indi.

SeatOld marginNew margin
Aston LIB 8.6% LIB 7.6%
Ballarat ALP 7.3% ALP 7.4%
Batman ALP vs GRN 1% ALP vs GRN 0.7%
Bean (Canberra) ALP 8.5% ALP 8.9%
Bendigo ALP 3.7% ALP 3.9%
Bruce ALP 4.1% ALP 14.2%
Calwell ALP 17.9% ALP 19.7%
Canberra New seat ALP 12.9%
Casey LIB 6.1% LIB 4.5%
Chisholm LIB 1.2% LIB 3%
Corio ALP 10% ALP 8.3%
Cox (Corangamite) LIB 3.1% LIB 0%
Deakin LIB 5.7% LIB 6.3%
Dunkley LIB 1.4% ALP 1%
Fenner ALP 13.9% ALP 11.8%
Flinders LIB 7.8% LIB 7%
Fraser New seat ALP 19.8%
Gellibrand ALP 18.2% ALP 15.1%
Gippsland NAT 18.4% NAT 18.3%
Goldstein LIB 12.7% LIB 12.7%
Gorton ALP 19.5% ALP 18.5%
Higgins LIB vs GRN 8% LIB vs GRN 7.6%
Holt ALP 14.2% ALP 9.7%
Hotham ALP 7.5% ALP 4.1%
Indi IND vs LIB 4.8% IND vs LIB 4.9%
Isaacs ALP 5.7% ALP 3.1%
Jagajaga ALP 4.7% ALP 5.6%
Kooyong LIB 13.3% LIB 12.7%
La Trobe LIB 1.5% LIB 3.3%
Lalor ALP 13.4% ALP 14.2%
Macnamara (Melbourne Ports) ALP 1.4% ALP 1.2%
Mallee NAT 21.3% NAT 20.1%
Maribyrnong ALP 12.3% ALP 10.5%
McEwen ALP 7.8% ALP 5.9%
Melbourne GRN vs LIB 18.5% GRN vs LIB 18.5%
Menzies LIB 10.6% LIB 7.8%
Monash (McMillan) LIB 6% LIB 7.5%
Nicholls (Murray) NAT vs LIB 24.9% NAT 22.4%
Scullin ALP 17.3% ALP 20%
Wannon LIB 9% LIB 9.4%
Wills ALP vs GRN 4.9% ALP vs GRN 4.9%

12:51 – Okay here are my estimates of the vote in each seat. A comparison of margins will be up next.

Vote estimates

SeatALP 2PPLNP 2PPALP primLNP primGRN prim
Aston42.457.630.9949.698.9
Ballarat57.442.643.3238.910.8
Batman72.028.035.1219.7136.6
Bendigo53.946.138.6541.3610.9
Bruce64.235.854.3130.226.6
Calwell69.730.358.4325.98.2
Casey45.554.528.1747.4912.9
Chisholm47.053.034.6947.1511.4
Corio58.341.743.5436.5211.7
Cox50.050.03443.7412.1
Deakin43.756.330.0950.0911.4
Dunkley51.049.136.4141.139.5
Flinders43.057.027.5550.5511.0
Fraser69.830.258.6125.359.7
Gellibrand65.134.946.129.819.1
Gippsland31.768.320.1256.257.8
Goldstein37.362.721.8856.3315.9
Gorton68.531.561.228.7710.0
Higgins39.960.116.5351.5824.2
Holt59.740.348.6433.986.5
Hotham54.145.942.9140.449.1
Indi45.055.09.9545.523.9
Isaacs53.147.041.0642.5910.6
Jagajaga55.644.541.0540.1413.5
Kooyong37.362.720.7257.5118.5
La Trobe46.753.332.1344.258.2
Lalor64.235.852.6230.219.6
Macnamara51.248.826.5541.9424.2
Mallee29.970.122.3463.297.0
Maribyrnong60.539.642.0733.6917.3
McEwen55.944.142.0737.958.6
Melbourne66.933.123.8624.9144.6
Menzies42.257.826.9549.810.4
Monash42.557.527.8449.8210.1
Nicholls27.672.41764.854.4
Scullin70.030.059.9125.637.2
Wannon40.659.429.9153.488.1
Wills71.628.437.8921.5231.0
Bean58.941.144.4837.2813.6
Canberra62.937.142.4432.8718.7
Fenner61.838.245.9733.2913.0

12:37 – There was a campaign to rename Batman due to the seat’s namesake’s historical atrocities against Aboriginal people. Smaller campaigns focused on McMillan and Gellibrand. This appears to have succeeded in McMillan but not Gellibrand or Batman. The other three seats with new names were all named after geographic features. While the AEC has generally not supported seats named after geographic features, they haven’t actively sought to rename these seats when there’s not a need. This suggests a change in policy.

12:32 – According to this statement, the seat of Batman will not be renamed.

Other information includes:

  • 19.5% of electors will change their electorate.
  • Renaming of seats will effect 10.54% of electors.

I still don’t see the report or the data online.

12:30 – We don’t have anything online but there have been some people who must have the report tweeting about name changes, including:

  • The new ACT seat named Bean
  • McMillan renamed Monash
  • Melbourne Ports renamed Macnamara
  • Corangamite renamed Cox
  • Murray renamed Nicholls

And the new seat of Fraser will be in the north-west of Melbourne.

11:45 – The AEC is promising to release the draft electoral boundaries for the ACT and Victoria around ‘lunchtime’ or ‘midday’. I’ll be posting my analysis of those boundaries here as quickly as possible, prioritising calculating primary vote and 2PP by seat. Stay tuned.

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About Ben Raue

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