Batman by-election results
|Candidate||Party||Primary||Primary %||Swing||2PP votes||2PP %||2PP Swing|
|Yvonne Gentle||Rise Up Australia||1895||2.56||2.56|
|Tegan Burns||People’s Party||358||0.48||0.48|
|Debbie Robinson||Liberty Alliance||957||1.29||1.29|
|Teresa Van Lieshout||Independent||875||1.18||1.18|
|Mark McDonald||Sustainable Australia||737||1||1|
|Miranda Smith||Animal Justice||2107||2.85||1.42|
Primary booths reporting: 44/52
2CP booths reporting: 44/52
Last updated at: 23:06
11:23pm – As for South Australia, the Liberal Party has won government, almost certainly with a majority. There is, however, a handful of seats still in play. The Liberal Party could win as many as 26 seats, but is leading in 25.
The upper house will see the major parties and the Greens hold steady, while the rest of the crossbench shifts. The Dignity Party has lost their sole seat, while the Conservatives have lost one of the two seats they inherited from Family First, with both those seats going to SA Best. The new government will need either SA Best or the Greens to pass legislation, in addition to the other party, or one of the other two members. One of these members, John Darley, was allied with Nick Xenophon when he succeeded Xenophon in the upper house in 2007 and when he won re-election in 2014.
11:19pm – I’m going to finish up this liveblog now, with a summary of each election. Firstly, Batman.
I’ll be back in a few minutes with a separate post showing the maps for Batman, but the quick summary is that we are still waiting for some pre-poll votes, as well as quite a lot of postal votes, but they hold no hope for the Greens. On current numbers, Ged Kearney has gained a 2.1% swing to Labor.
There was a very clear trend where the Greens gained small swings in northern booths, while Labor gained large swings at the southern end, including a gobsmacking 34% swing in Northcote West. We just received the result from the Northcote pre-poll booth, which produced a 6.7% swing to Labor.
10:27pm – Current numbers suggest that Labor and Liberal will each maintain their four upper house seats, with two SA Best members and one Green. So that’s a loss for Dignity Party’s Kelly Vincent and the Conservatives’ Robert Brokenshire.
10:04pm – We’ve now got the votes in the Thornbury pre-poll in the centre of Batman, with Labor gaining a swing of 2.8% in that booth. This has properly shut the door on the Greens there.
10:01pm – So there are 23 seats which are locked on for the Liberal Party, with them looking good to win Newland. They are behind, but still with a shot, in Mawson, while Heysen is up in the air. So they could end up on as many as 26 seats. Even if they don’t win any of these seats, the independent MP in Mount Gambier should give them the numbers they need.
9:58pm – If you’ve found this analysis useful, tonight and throughout the campaign, maybe you could consider signing up as a patron?
9:31pm – I’ve been focusing on analysing data at the Guardian liveblog but here’s where things stand at 9:30:
- Labor looks set to win the Batman by-election with a swing of over 1%. We’ve just started receiving pre-poll votes, but there’s no evidence of a shift in the vote.
- The Liberal Party look set to win a majority in the South Australian election, with a few seats just firming up now. SA Best may not win any seats, with only one seat still in play for the third party.
7:41pm – Things don’t look good for Alex Bhathal and the Greens in Batman. Nearly every booth is swinging to Labor after preferences, with some large swings in southern booths.
7:11pm – After three booths, the swing to the Greens after preferences is 0.88%.
7:07pm – First three booths for the Greens in Batman include two large booths in Labor-friendly Reservoir. Overall the Greens vote is up 8.9%, while Labor is up 2.2%.
6:38pm – And polls have now closed in South Australia. Still no data from Batman.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the by-election for the federal seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north. Polls will close in half an hour for the South Australian state election, with polls closing in three hours in the lower-profile Cottesloe state by-election in Perth. I’ll be using AEDT times for my coverage tonight. I’ll also be dropping in to the Guardian’s election night liveblog.
For the Batman by-election I will be posting overall results (top of the page), which include swings based on the vote in 2016 at the booths reported so far. This can be extrapolated to determine projected final votes. Hopefully this is useful.