Super saturday – election day thread

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Polls have now opened in the South Australian state election and the federal Batman by-election, and will be opening in the state by-election in Cottesloe within the next half-hour.

This post is mostly to provide a place to discuss today’s events, but I did want to touch briefly on the two statewide polls released last night for South Australia.

Both have very similar numbers, with the Liberal Party leading on 34%, Labor on 31%, and SA Best on 16% (Reachtel) or 17% (Newspoll). We know that Newspoll has dialled down their numbers for SA Best to reflect the fact that they were running everywhere (the last poll had them on a statewide figure of 27% but only 21% if you exclude voters who can’t vote for them), presumably Reachtel is similar.

A vote of 16-17% would be very good for a minor party, and will undoubtedly be enough to win some seats, but it’ll be a small bench and suggests that Nick Xenophon may struggle to win Hartley (as a local poll has emphasised).

I’ll be running a liveblog here while also contributing to the Guardian’s liveblog. The main thing I plan to include here is a model matching the booths in Batman. Of course, expect some booth results maps late in the night (this time I’m confident I’ll get access to the data on the night).

Good luck voting!

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Yeah I think the voters will close the curtain on Labor in SA.

    Labor is fortunate that the Greens have little support in the northern half of Batman.

  2. Yes Paul, but it probably wont save the ALP in Batman.

    I think that the Greens will win by 2% 2PP.

    Nice photo next to your name.

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