Tasmanian election night live

10:13pm – If you’ve appreciated my coverage of this election, now would be a good time to think about signing up as a patron. I’ll be covering this election further in the coming days, with maps breaking down what happened across the state, and of course there’ll be a lot more coverage of the three other elections coming up in two weeks’ time.

9:54pm – This is the ninth Tasmanian state election that the Greens have contested as a statewide party. Their worst ever result was one seat in 1998, with a vote of 10.2%. They are currently sitting on a statewide vote of 10.3%, with only one seat guaranteed.

9:29pm – I’ve got quite a bit of analysis at the Guardian but here is my summary of the current situation.

I see the Liberal Party on 13 seats (a majority) with a chance of two more. Labor is on 8, with the Greens winning at least one seat.

The three outstanding seats are:

  • Labor vs Greens in Bass – Greens MP Andrea Dawkins is trailing a second Labor candidate.
  • Labor vs Liberal in Braddon – there’s still a chance of a fourth Liberal in Braddon, although Labor is leading.
  • Liberal vs Greens in Franklin – Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff is close to a quota, but only just ahead of the third Liberal quota. A very large proportion of the Liberal vote sits with Will Hodgman, which means they may struggle with some preferences leaking out of the Liberal ticket.

8:07pm – The Liberal Party looks likely to win at least two in Franklin (possibly a third), two in Denison, and at least three in the other electorates. That would be a majority.

7:31pm – The results are looking very good for the Liberal Party, particularly in the northern seats. It looks likely that they will win at least 13 seats, possibly more. It also looks quite possible that the Greens will lose a seat in Bass, dropping to two seats – their worst result since 1998.

6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the Tasmanian state election. I will drop in occasionally with commentary here, as well as contributing to the Guardian liveblog. We should expect to see voting figures before 7pm, until then you can take a look at the Tasmanian election guide.

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