10:25pm – As my last contribution for tonight, here is a map of the booth results and the Greens swing (which can be toggled).
8:23pm – I’m gonna turn off for a little while and will come back once most of the votes have reported.
8:22pm – With seven booths reporting preferences, the Greens have won six. Labor held on with 53.3% in Darebin Parklands, but that was a swing of almost 21.8%.
8:20pm – Six booths have reported preferences. The Greens are on 55.3%, but are projected to increase that to 60.7% as the remaining booths come in.
8:18pm – Just back from dinner now. 10 out of 14 booths have reported the primary vote. The Greens polled 48.3% of the primary vote so far, and my model suggests it will creep up to about 49.3%.
7:49pm – Four 2CP booths have reported, and the Greens are on 56% of the vote after preferences. This is a swing of 17.8% in these four booths, and you’d expect that Greens vote to grow as bigger booths report.
7:47pm – We’ve now got six votes reporting primary votes, and the swing to the Greens remains above 14%, which would put them on track to win a majority of the primary vote.
7:43pm – 14% primary vote swing to the Greens in Preston South. It’s worth noting the best Greens areas have not yet reported – it’s possible they will not gain as large swings there.
7:39pm – 21.5% swing to the Greens after preferences at Alphington North.
7:33pm – We now have preferences from Alphington and Darebin Parklands and the swings are just as big. A 14.7% swing in Alphington and a 21.8% swing in Darebin Parklands. Between these two booths it’s a swing of 16.8%, which would project to a Greens 2CP just over 60%.
7:29pm – Another big swing to the Greens of almost 15% in Alphington. Overall swing to the Greens is sitting on 14.8% after four booths.
7:23pm – Alphington, in the south-east, saw another double-digit swing to the Greens. The Greens gained 10.7% for a total of 43.6%, while Labor dropped 5.3%.
7:22pm – Off two booths, the Greens are up 15.25%, and Labor is down 9.6%. It’s worth noting both booths are in the north of the seat, which is one of the more pro-Labor areas. It suggests the Greens are making inroads in Labor’s better areas.
7:21pm – The second booth, Bell, is substantially bigger than Darebin Parklands, and has a similar pattern. 13.6% swing to the Greens, 7.8% swing away from Labor.
7:13pm – If this swing played out across the seat, the Greens would end with about 51% of the primary vote. It’s worth bearing in mind that the Greens only polled 33% in this booth, but it was a poor booth in 2014. It’s possible they are picking up ground in their worst booths but not gaining as much overall.
7:09pm – First booth in is Darebin Parklands, and we’ve seen a 15% swing to the Greens on primary vote and an 11.3% swing away from Labor.
6:40pm – Polls closed 40 minutes ago in the Northcote by-election. I’ll be analysing the results here as they come in over the coming hours.