Comments on: What seat should I do next?

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 02:45:43 +0000

Maybe O’Connor? I understand that Clive Palmer is throwing money at Nats in that area to try to win it.

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 23:22:28 +0000

Richmond now, formerley Page.

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 23:19:56 +0000

Is it Richmond or Page that contains Nimbin?

By: Nick C

Nick C — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 11:34:36 +0000

Re seats on a greater than 6% margin – the ones I’d probably have to say are most interesting would be, firstly, seats like Wakefield and Moreton, which have a history as swinging seats, O’Connor and Durack, since the WA Nats might make those contests interesting (although they’ll be hard seats to do I guess, maps probably have to be given a miss), and Batman, since the Greens will presumably do well there.

Melbourne Ports would be interesting, not that it’s likely to change hands, but the maps would be fascinating.

I don’t want to push Richmond too much, because it’s my part of the world, but you won’t find a politically savy person in the region who doesn’t think that 8.9% margin seems ridiculously inflated. I still don’t see how Labor could lose it given the size of the margin, and the fact that Green voters will invariably still preference Elliot anyway (especially since the two Coalition candidates seem to be in a battle to see which can be the biggest climate change skeptic), unless something else happens such as the entry of an independent who makes a significant impact (and I know people working on that, but I’m unaware of any actual candidates at this stage who would make that sort of impact). The three-way contest, at the moment, is starting to attract a fair bit of media coverage, and then it’s also quite likely that the Greens will outpoll one of the Coalition candidates.

One other bit of news relating to Richmond that’s come out in the last couple of weeks is the reported fall from grace of the Nats’ answer to Malcolm Tucker, local party official and campaign mastermind Murray Lees, who was reportedly forced to resign from the party after his fourth drink-driving conviction:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/21/2798059.htm
Though the report doesn’t say if he’s also quit his political consultancy business:
http://www.voteright.com.au/

By: Shark1975

Shark1975 — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 00:17:24 +0000

Wright would be a good one.

By: Ryan.M

Ryan.M — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 07:00:02 +0000

MDMConnell,

I didn’t mean to say that it was under threat, but that it’s interesting because Liberal, Labor and the Greens all poll quite high there, sorry if my meaning was misunderstood.

By: Max Laughton

Max Laughton — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:39:30 +0000

Admittedly, I live in Aston, but it’s pretty interesting too. The Libs have a 5% margin but it swung nearly 8% last election and the standing Liberal member, Chris Pearce, has quit, with a generic advisor type from out of the electorate replacing him. Should be mighty close.

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 08:15:18 +0000

Ryan,

I seriously doubt Melbourne Ports is under threat this year. Although I agree it probably is moving in the Liberal direction.

By: Ryan.M

Ryan.M — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 06:00:53 +0000

I think the new seats of Wright and Durack, the liberals have an interesting candidate in Wright with Hajnal Ban, the Liberal turned Nationals turned Liberal again. Durack is interesting due to the fact the Nationals have a very strong candidate there and they are popular with rural people in WA. i Also think Melbourne Ports in Victoria as Michael Danby is a nobody MP who only cares about St Kilda in his electorate and attempting to appear as Jewish as possible (don’t worry i can say that i’m jewish) and the greens have polled quite hight there in the past elections.

By: Jarrod

Jarrod — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 05:11:44 +0000

Go for Casey. I’d like to see what you think ALP’s chances are there.