Queensland redistribution – first draft released

The first draft of Queensland’s new state electoral map was released this morning, after a broad outline was leaked last night.

The redistribution is the first in almost a decade, and the redistribution will see four additional seats created in the Assembly. The combination of these factors has meant that the changes are quite dramatic.

Five new seats have been created, while two inner-city seats have been merged.

At least three prominent MPs face a significantly tougher task in winning re-election. Labor minister Steven Miles and LNP frontbencher Scott Emerson represent neighbouring seats of Mount Coot-tha and Indooroopilly. The two seats have both been abolished and replaced by the seat of Maiwar – a seat with a margin of approximately 2.8% for the LNP. They now face the choice of a tough contest or looking for a safer seat elsewhere.

Shane Knuth, a member of Katter’s Australian Party, represents Dalrymple in north Queensland. That seat has been broken apart, with a majority of the seat going into the new seat of Hill – but only 60% of that seat is areas previously contained in Dalrymple.

There are eighteen seats, including Hill and Maiwar, where the incumbent MP currently represents less than 70% of their new seat’s population.

The five new seats are Bancroft, in northern Brisbane; Bonney, on the Gold Coast; Jordan, in the Ipswich area; Macalister on the Gold Coast-Logan boundary and Ninderry on the Sunshine Coast. Some would count Hill as a new seat, but I think it’s an obvious successor to Dalrymple.

Numerous seats have been renamed, with the Commission moving away from the norm where state electorates are named after localities. The Commission instead chose to name a dozen seats after distinguished Queenslanders, following the practice of the Australian Electoral Commission, who traditionally name seats after people. The range of individuals selected for this honour are more diverse than those with federal electorates named in their honour – less politicians, and a lot more women.

This map shows the old and new Queensland state boundaries – red represents the 2009-2015 boundaries, while green represents the draft boundaries released today. Below the map I’ve also posted my own estimates of the margin in each seat. I’m sure others will do more precise analysis, but I thought I should nail my colours to the mast and post my own estimates.

Seat Margin Seat Margin
Pumicestone ALP vs LNP 50.2% Whitsunday LNP vs ALP 50.7%
Pumicestone ALP vs LNP 50.2% Whitsunday LNP vs ALP 50.7%
Mansfield ALP vs LNP 50.6% Hill LNP vs KAP 50.8%
Bundaberg ALP vs LNP 50.8% Tibrogargan LNP vs ALP 51.4%
Maryborough ALP vs LNP 50.8% Toowoomba North LNP vs ALP 51.6%
Mount Ommaney ALP vs LNP 51.1% Redlands LNP vs ALP 51.8%
Springwood ALP vs LNP 51.3% Aspley LNP vs ALP 52.5%
Mundingburra ALP vs LNP 51.6% Bonney LNP vs ALP 52.6%
Cooper ALP vs LNP 53.0% Chatsworth LNP vs ALP 52.7%
Barron River ALP vs LNP 53.3% Everton LNP vs ALP 52.7%
McConnel ALP vs LNP 53.5% Maiwar LNP vs ALP 52.8%
Keppel ALP vs LNP 53.9% Gaven LNP vs ALP 52.8%
Mirani ALP vs LNP 54.0% Hinchinbrook LNP vs ALP 53.7%
Ferny Grove ALP vs LNP 54.4% Caloundra LNP vs ALP 54.7%
D’Aguilar ALP vs LNP 55.1% Theodore LNP vs ALP 55.1%
Greenslopes ALP vs LNP 55.3% Lockyer LNP vs ON 55.2%
Townsville ALP vs LNP 55.7% McMaster LNP vs ALP 55.5%
Stretton ALP vs LNP 55.7% Burleigh LNP vs ALP 55.6%
MacAlister ALP vs LNP 55.9% Clayfield LNP vs ALP 55.7%
Thuringowa ALP vs LNP 56.1% Currumbin LNP vs ALP 55.7%
Bulimba ALP vs LNP 56.1% Coomera LNP vs ALP 55.9%
Capalaba ALP vs LNP 56.2% Oodgeroo LNP vs ALP 56.1%
Logan ALP vs LNP 56.2% Hervey Bay LNP vs ALP 56.5%
Murrumba ALP vs LNP 56.5% Kawana LNP vs ALP 57.7%
Miller ALP vs LNP 56.7% Noosa LNP vs GRN 57.8%
Cook ALP vs LNP 56.8% Burnett LNP vs ALP 58.1%
Cairns ALP vs LNP 57.5% Moggill LNP vs ALP 58.2%
Kurwongbah ALP vs LNP 57.5% Gympie LNP vs ALP 58.6%
Redcliffe ALP vs LNP 57.6% Toowoomba South LNP vs ALP 59.1%
Algester ALP vs LNP 57.7% Southport LNP vs ALP 60%
Bancroft ALP vs LNP 57.8% Maroochydore LNP vs ALP 60.4%
Toohey ALP vs LNP 57.8% Mudgeeraba LNP vs ALP 60.7%
Nudgee ALP vs LNP 58.6% Mermaid Beach LNP vs ALP 61%
Stafford ALP vs LNP 58.9% Gregory LNP vs ALP 61.5%
Ipswich West ALP vs LNP 59.0% Scenic Rim LNP vs ALP 61.7%
Jordan ALP vs LNP 59.6% Callide LNP vs PUP 62.2%
Lytton ALP vs LNP 59.6% Broadwater LNP vs ALP 62.8%
Mackay ALP vs LNP 59.7% Buderim LNP vs ALP 63%
Sandgate ALP vs LNP 59.8% Warrego LNP vs ALP 65%
Morayfield ALP vs LNP 61.5% Condamine LNP vs ALP 66.9%
Gladstone ALP vs IND 62.6% Nanango LNP vs ALP 67.4%
Mulgrave ALP vs LNP 62.8% Southern Downs LNP vs ALP 69.2%
South Brisbane ALP vs LNP 63.5% Surfers Paradise LNP vs ALP 69.6%
Rockhampton ALP vs LNP 63.9% Ninderry LNP vs ALP 71.4%
Waterford ALP vs LNP 64.4%
Ipswich ALP vs LNP 65.2%
Inala ALP vs LNP 69.7%
Woodridge ALP vs LNP 74.1% Nicklin IND vs LNP 57.0%
Bundamba ALP vs LNP 74.5% Traeger KAP vs LNP 65.8%

About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.