Queensland redistribution – first draft released

The first draft of Queensland’s new state electoral map was released this morning, after a broad outline was leaked last night.

The redistribution is the first in almost a decade, and the redistribution will see four additional seats created in the Assembly. The combination of these factors has meant that the changes are quite dramatic.

Five new seats have been created, while two inner-city seats have been merged.

At least three prominent MPs face a significantly tougher task in winning re-election. Labor minister Steven Miles and LNP frontbencher Scott Emerson represent neighbouring seats of Mount Coot-tha and Indooroopilly. The two seats have both been abolished and replaced by the seat of Maiwar – a seat with a margin of approximately 2.8% for the LNP. They now face the choice of a tough contest or looking for a safer seat elsewhere.

Shane Knuth, a member of Katter’s Australian Party, represents Dalrymple in north Queensland. That seat has been broken apart, with a majority of the seat going into the new seat of Hill – but only 60% of that seat is areas previously contained in Dalrymple.

There are eighteen seats, including Hill and Maiwar, where the incumbent MP currently represents less than 70% of their new seat’s population.

The five new seats are Bancroft, in northern Brisbane; Bonney, on the Gold Coast; Jordan, in the Ipswich area; Macalister on the Gold Coast-Logan boundary and Ninderry on the Sunshine Coast. Some would count Hill as a new seat, but I think it’s an obvious successor to Dalrymple.

Numerous seats have been renamed, with the Commission moving away from the norm where state electorates are named after localities. The Commission instead chose to name a dozen seats after distinguished Queenslanders, following the practice of the Australian Electoral Commission, who traditionally name seats after people. The range of individuals selected for this honour are more diverse than those with federal electorates named in their honour – less politicians, and a lot more women.

This map shows the old and new Queensland state boundaries – red represents the 2009-2015 boundaries, while green represents the draft boundaries released today. Below the map I’ve also posted my own estimates of the margin in each seat. I’m sure others will do more precise analysis, but I thought I should nail my colours to the mast and post my own estimates.

SeatMarginSeatMargin
PumicestoneALP vs LNP 50.2%WhitsundayLNP vs ALP 50.7%
MansfieldALP vs LNP 50.6%HillLNP vs KAP 50.8%
BundabergALP vs LNP 50.8%TibrogarganLNP vs ALP 51.4%
MaryboroughALP vs LNP 50.8%Toowoomba NorthLNP vs ALP 51.6%
Mount OmmaneyALP vs LNP 51.1%RedlandsLNP vs ALP 51.8%
SpringwoodALP vs LNP 51.3%AspleyLNP vs ALP 52.5%
MundingburraALP vs LNP 51.6%BonneyLNP vs ALP 52.6%
CooperALP vs LNP 53.0%ChatsworthLNP vs ALP 52.7%
Barron RiverALP vs LNP 53.3%EvertonLNP vs ALP 52.7%
McConnelALP vs LNP 53.5%MaiwarLNP vs ALP 52.8%
KeppelALP vs LNP 53.9%GavenLNP vs ALP 52.8%
MiraniALP vs LNP 54.0%HinchinbrookLNP vs ALP 53.7%
Ferny GroveALP vs LNP 54.4%CaloundraLNP vs ALP 54.7%
D’AguilarALP vs LNP 55.1%TheodoreLNP vs ALP 55.1%
GreenslopesALP vs LNP 55.3%LockyerLNP vs ON 55.2%
TownsvilleALP vs LNP 55.7%McMasterLNP vs ALP 55.5%
StrettonALP vs LNP 55.7%BurleighLNP vs ALP 55.6%
MacAlisterALP vs LNP 55.9%ClayfieldLNP vs ALP 55.7%
ThuringowaALP vs LNP 56.1%CurrumbinLNP vs ALP 55.7%
BulimbaALP vs LNP 56.1%CoomeraLNP vs ALP 55.9%
CapalabaALP vs LNP 56.2%OodgerooLNP vs ALP 56.1%
LoganALP vs LNP 56.2%Hervey BayLNP vs ALP 56.5%
MurrumbaALP vs LNP 56.5%KawanaLNP vs ALP 57.7%
MillerALP vs LNP 56.7%NoosaLNP vs GRN 57.8%
CookALP vs LNP 56.8%BurnettLNP vs ALP 58.1%
CairnsALP vs LNP 57.5%MoggillLNP vs ALP 58.2%
KurwongbahALP vs LNP 57.5%GympieLNP vs ALP 58.6%
RedcliffeALP vs LNP 57.6%Toowoomba SouthLNP vs ALP 59.1%
AlgesterALP vs LNP 57.7%SouthportLNP vs ALP 60%
BancroftALP vs LNP 57.8%MaroochydoreLNP vs ALP 60.4%
TooheyALP vs LNP 57.8%MudgeerabaLNP vs ALP 60.7%
NudgeeALP vs LNP 58.6%Mermaid BeachLNP vs ALP 61%
StaffordALP vs LNP 58.9%GregoryLNP vs ALP 61.5%
Ipswich WestALP vs LNP 59.0%Scenic RimLNP vs ALP 61.7%
JordanALP vs LNP 59.6%CallideLNP vs PUP 62.2%
LyttonALP vs LNP 59.6%BroadwaterLNP vs ALP 62.8%
MackayALP vs LNP 59.7%BuderimLNP vs ALP 63%
SandgateALP vs LNP 59.8%WarregoLNP vs ALP 65%
MorayfieldALP vs LNP 61.5%CondamineLNP vs ALP 66.9%
GladstoneALP vs IND 62.6%NanangoLNP vs ALP 67.4%
MulgraveALP vs LNP 62.8%Southern DownsLNP vs ALP 69.2%
South BrisbaneALP vs LNP 63.5%Surfers ParadiseLNP vs ALP 69.6%
RockhamptonALP vs LNP 63.9%NinderryLNP vs ALP 71.4%
WaterfordALP vs LNP 64.4%
IpswichALP vs LNP 65.2%
InalaALP vs LNP 69.7%
WoodridgeALP vs LNP 74.1%NicklinIND vs LNP 57.0%
BundambaALP vs LNP 74.5%TraegerKAP vs LNP 65.8%
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About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.

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