8:29pm – The Liberal vote has increased to 47.7% and the Ruff vote has dropped to 18.8%, with about two-thirds of booths reporting.
7:55pm – Just under half the booths have reported, and the Liberal Party’s Trent Zimmerman is leading on just under 47% of the primary vote, with independent Stephen Ruff in second place on 20%. It’s unlikely that Ruff will be able to overtake Zimmerman’s lead on preferences.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed in the North Sydney federal by-election. I probably won’t be actively covering the results tonight but I’ll post major updates here, and you can discuss the results in the comments below.
So, the Northsiders are again obediently voting as expected …..
Ok so in 2013 Joe Hockey got 61% of first preference votes, however there was no strong independent candidate like Stephen Ruff. The Libs would therefore be happy with this result. Of course the Abbott loonies will claim that this is a 13% swing against the government even though there isa 20% vote for Ruff
watch the 2 candidate preferred Ruff will be second and get green preferences so something
like lib 47% Ruff 39% 14% left……… will be something like 56% and 44% independent not counting postal or pre poll………………………… Ted Mack would have won
my figures are out by 2%
So Ruff has basically swallowed up the Labor vote. His vote is almost exactly what Labor’s was in 2013, and the Greens have barely improved.
but the lib vote has dropped 13% as well………
I think what’s actually happened is that some of the Lib vote has gone to Ruff and to a lesser extent the Greens and micros, the Labor vote has gone about half to Ruff with the rest scattering to the Greens and micros, and the Greens have lost as many votes to micros and Ruff as they’ve gained from Labor and Liberal. Although the Greens vote has hardly changed and the Ruff vote is similar to Labor’s, I don’t think it’s as simple as the Liberal vote going straight to micros, especially as some of the micros are left-wing.
Agree with Kevin – Sustainable population and Bullet Train parties are almost certainly Greens voters going on ACT experience.
The Greens normally do well in affluent electorates – they come second in other North Shore and Northern Beaches electorates. With no Labor candidate at all, here they’ve barely increased their share – relegated to third place.
Raises a few questions…
Did Greens voters look at the “new Greens” under DiNatale and decide, “No thanks, I’d rather have the real thing, Malcolm Turnbull?”
Only two of the micros could conceivably be called left wing (arts and cyclists), so if as Kevin Bonham suggests, Greens voters have scattered to the micros, then they must be a fickle lot. Are they really just protest voters?
What happened to the theory (not one that I subscribe to, not any more) that the Greens vote is a left wing one, and only comes from Labor?
Was ex-Democrat Arthur Chesterfield-Evans simply the wrong candidate?
Going off Ruffs website, his policies are on the whole a mix of ‘ Joe has treated us , badly ‘ and slightly, centre leftish stuff I.e : against CSG and open cut coal mines, against privatisation of public hospitals , pro public transport etc
Gather that he has a fair personal following , has worked at RNS etc for a long time, in a seat that provably feels a bit taken for granted. In short a ‘reasonable’ place for a swinging centrist to park her- his vote.
As for the about 16 % vote to micro parties, none of them will get their deposit back, almost seems like people just did a random choice. BTW Apart from Fred Niles group and the Lib Democrats are any of them obvious places for a pissed off Abbottnista to park their vote?
When will the distribution of preferences be known?
They are starting to distribute preferences (Zimmerman vs Ruff) now.
Apparently preferences are favouring Zimmerman more than expected, and he will end up with only a couple of % swing against him on 2CP.
Mick Quinlivan
Yep. Ted Mack would have won.
Mark Mulcair
Yeah. Too many protest voters didn’t think it through , & put the libs last. i did.
Teddy B
Agree with you about the Green vote. It is not simply a left wing equation. Most Green voters do not know basic green loony economic policy, or understand the implications. When i point out some of these, there is often embarrassment, & shock.
There are many affluent green voters with ignorant assumptions, & a lack of scrutiny, or concern about the true direction of this infinitly destructive party.
For example i’ve only met one (wealthy) green voter who actually is prepared to subject her children to 40% death duty/inheritance tax on ALL assets. I bet her children will think differently !!!.
MY EX is a green. My son is a member of the Shooter’s Party !!!. He is not stupid !!!
Ben , I gather the Libs are sitting on about 60% after preferences, is that likely to be about the final result?
We do not live in the electorate of North Sydney but if we had we would have voted Liberal for the first time. One the candidate was gay, from the Moderate faction and in a same -sex relationship and secondly to make sure of the support for Malcolm Turnbull’s Prime Ministership. We will be voting in the future to ensure a small ‘l’ Liberal Government endures. Labor is conservative ‘light’ anyway .Full of Pell lovers.
Brenty
So your vote will make a difference in which electorate ??
The reason why the Green vote was hindered is essentially by Ruff’s performance. Ruff’s policies were quite socially progressive and as well with his pro public transport, anti council amalgamations and anti RNSH land sell off made him appealing to large amount of Green Voters. When the next election turns around, assuming that Ruff won’t contest the Greens should beat Labor into Second. Granted that should happen in a vast amount of Safe, inner city and affluent Liberal electorates like North Sydney, Bradfield, MacKellar, Wentworth (NSW), Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein (Vic) and Curtin (WA)
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