7:25pm – The Liberal Party looks set to retain both seats. At the moment they are on 47.7% in Polwarth, which should easily be enough. In South-West Coast they are on 36%, but with ex-Labor candidate Roy Reekie second on 17.7% ahead of the Country Party and the Nationals. This should also be enough.
6:18pm – Polls have now closed in these two state by-elections for these seats in south-western Victoria.
I haven’t done my traditional booth-matching work for these by-elections, but will post occasional updates as results flow in.
Lib candidate in SW Coast has been telling local media politics was a lot harder work than she expected but I still expect her to win
Greens look like easily finishing second in Polwarth. The coastal and Otways towns are very strong for them.
suspect Liberal party win in sw coast but is a bad result for the libs……could be lib 55/ 45 Reekie…… large number of prepoll votes….. as Quoted elsewhere Reekie needs something
like 70% of everyone else’s preference….. given at least 10% national party vote and that their
htv preferenced the libs this is very very very unlikely
Turnout in SWC is 40.2% at present. I don’t what’s still to come but all the booths are in. I haven’t checked but this must be the lowest turnout for many years.
Mark, in Polwarth last year Labor and Greens together got 39%, now the Greens have 17%. Most Labor voters have stayed home.
And incidentally while I’m here, I have now finished stage 1 of my complete archive of Victorian election results back to 1843. It all still has to be checked and I’m still working on the maps.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/vic/historic/vichistoricelections.shtml
Suddenly turnout in SWC has gone up to 55%, much the same as Polwarth. It’s still pretty low, but not as bad as I thought.
there was a very big prepoll and postal vote…….in sw coast they must be counting the prepoll now
Yes, that’s obviously what’s happened.
2PP throw Britnell vs Reekie in progress confirms Britnell will win easily (despite some of the silly stuff flying around). Nowhere near all booths are counted in this 2PP throw but the booths counted are representative enough in terms of primary votes for the leaders.
2pp throw 56% 2pp for Libs 44 % for Reekie…. who was defacto Alp candidate
The result in SWC is now virtually the same as the last election. 60.5% vs 39.5%.
very interesting the votes on the day behaved very differently to the prepoll. usually they are very similar……. there was a very large number of postal and prepoll as well. From what I can gather the prepoll was a Portland and the prepoll period was for 4 weeks. I have worked in many elections in Nsw for the ALP and this pattern is strange to say the least
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