NSW redistribution – notional vote figures

I’ve been getting a bunch of questions about the relative strength of parties in the proposed new federal electorates which were released by the AEC yesterday.

William Bowe at Poll Bludger released notional two-party-preferred figures yesterday, and my calculations are pretty close to his, but I’ve also added primary vote figures for Labor, Coalition, Greens and “other”.

The AEC has released data on which ABS Statistical Area 1 units (the smallest analytic unit available) are in which seats, both on the existing boundaries and on the draft boundaries. I then mashed this up with Parliamentary Library data on how the primary vote and the two-party-preferred vote is estimated to have been split up by SA1 at the 2013 election to produce estimates.

The following table provides the 2PP for Labor at the 2013 election (you can derive the Coalition figure by subtracting the percentage from 100), the change in that 2PP due to the redistribution the primary vote for Labor, Coalition, Greens and other, and the proportion of the new electorate which was not in the existing electorate.

The table is below the fold. Enjoy!

Voter groupALP 2PP %ALP 2PP changeALP prim %LNP prim %GRN prim %OTH prim %% change
Banks47.29-0.8840.0147.575.047.3819.10
Barton57.487.7944.6035.1310.1410.1327.77
Bennelong42.260.0332.4952.968.426.130.03
Berowra30.950.0219.0261.4910.049.446.24
Blaxland59.32-2.1153.3035.033.328.3521.79
Bradfield29.07-0.1516.6065.0812.815.515.83
Calare35.010.9826.2456.555.0412.1720.98
Chifley60.920.3752.6731.802.6612.870.39
Cook34.280.6326.1259.715.908.2625.33
Cowper36.78-1.5123.5754.0310.5711.8232.65
Cunningham61.311.4347.0132.4111.369.227.82
Dobell50.230.9136.4740.754.8717.917.43
Eden-Monaro47.13-2.2635.9246.387.4510.2524.60
Farrer28.36-4.2120.1861.543.9614.3227.28
Fowler65.25-1.5559.4929.433.307.7849.04
Gilmore46.20-1.1534.2447.439.069.2719.79
Grayndler65.13-5.2144.3830.1820.405.0435.04
Greenway52.96-0.0244.4739.963.6311.954.17
Hughes38.23-1.1029.7055.525.888.8935.30
Hume35.99-2.5425.3156.485.3012.9145.04
Hunter (formerly Charlton)55.69-3.5444.6132.116.0517.2447.07
Kingsford Smith52.760.0242.0043.479.824.700.00
Lindsay46.99-0.0239.0046.653.0711.290.00
Lyne36.441.2123.8053.946.3115.9642.09
Macarthur46.437.7937.9545.704.1312.2139.74
Mackellar31.190.0317.2562.4214.196.140.00
Macquarie45.49-0.0330.9747.4011.1010.530.00
McMahon52.58-2.7446.7642.463.067.7328.69
Mitchell28.610.6921.1164.826.397.693.20
New England30.240.9513.7453.954.7527.5714.15
Newcastle59.440.6144.2533.1611.6910.9023.06
North Sydney34.340.2320.0460.8515.543.575.32
Page46.87-0.6135.6546.219.049.1027.19
Parkes30.122.4722.4560.624.6812.2524.04
Parramatta51.410.8442.2443.445.229.1010.70
Paterson50.3710.1539.7541.126.3212.8149.90
Reid49.270.1240.6146.757.025.6216.07
Richmond51.69-1.2934.3339.2215.4810.9814.97
Riverina31.152.3221.8158.253.6716.2743.24
Robertson46.89-0.1134.6543.525.6116.222.74
Shortland57.430.2248.2336.436.309.0316.15
Sydney63.34-1.3144.1531.6718.176.0112.92
Warringah34.710.0619.3460.7915.534.330.01
Watson58.932.1250.5536.456.246.7719.04
Wentworth31.64-0.6418.9864.0214.332.670.01
Werriwa57.465.2250.2135.073.2311.4944.24
Whitlam (formerly Throsby)56.49-1.2843.8038.755.9711.4816.78
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