NSW redistribution – notional vote figures

I’ve been getting a bunch of questions about the relative strength of parties in the proposed new federal electorates which were released by the AEC yesterday.

William Bowe at Poll Bludger released notional two-party-preferred figures yesterday, and my calculations are pretty close to his, but I’ve also added primary vote figures for Labor, Coalition, Greens and “other”.

The AEC has released data on which ABS Statistical Area 1 units (the smallest analytic unit available) are in which seats, both on the existing boundaries and on the draft boundaries. I then mashed this up with Parliamentary Library data on how the primary vote and the two-party-preferred vote is estimated to have been split up by SA1 at the 2013 election to produce estimates.

The following table provides the 2PP for Labor at the 2013 election (you can derive the Coalition figure by subtracting the percentage from 100), the change in that 2PP due to the redistribution the primary vote for Labor, Coalition, Greens and other, and the proportion of the new electorate which was not in the existing electorate.

The table is below the fold. Enjoy!

Voter group ALP 2PP % ALP 2PP change ALP prim % LNP prim % GRN prim % OTH prim % % change
Banks 47.29 -0.88 40.01 47.57 5.04 7.38 19.10
Barton 57.48 7.79 44.60 35.13 10.14 10.13 27.77
Bennelong 42.26 0.03 32.49 52.96 8.42 6.13 0.03
Berowra 30.95 0.02 19.02 61.49 10.04 9.44 6.24
Blaxland 59.32 -2.11 53.30 35.03 3.32 8.35 21.79
Bradfield 29.07 -0.15 16.60 65.08 12.81 5.51 5.83
Calare 35.01 0.98 26.24 56.55 5.04 12.17 20.98
Chifley 60.92 0.37 52.67 31.80 2.66 12.87 0.39
Cook 34.28 0.63 26.12 59.71 5.90 8.26 25.33
Cowper 36.78 -1.51 23.57 54.03 10.57 11.82 32.65
Cunningham 61.31 1.43 47.01 32.41 11.36 9.22 7.82
Dobell 50.23 0.91 36.47 40.75 4.87 17.91 7.43
Eden-Monaro 47.13 -2.26 35.92 46.38 7.45 10.25 24.60
Farrer 28.36 -4.21 20.18 61.54 3.96 14.32 27.28
Fowler 65.25 -1.55 59.49 29.43 3.30 7.78 49.04
Gilmore 46.20 -1.15 34.24 47.43 9.06 9.27 19.79
Grayndler 65.13 -5.21 44.38 30.18 20.40 5.04 35.04
Greenway 52.96 -0.02 44.47 39.96 3.63 11.95 4.17
Hughes 38.23 -1.10 29.70 55.52 5.88 8.89 35.30
Hume 35.99 -2.54 25.31 56.48 5.30 12.91 45.04
Hunter (formerly Charlton) 55.69 -3.54 44.61 32.11 6.05 17.24 47.07
Kingsford Smith 52.76 0.02 42.00 43.47 9.82 4.70 0.00
Lindsay 46.99 -0.02 39.00 46.65 3.07 11.29 0.00
Lyne 36.44 1.21 23.80 53.94 6.31 15.96 42.09
Macarthur 46.43 7.79 37.95 45.70 4.13 12.21 39.74
Mackellar 31.19 0.03 17.25 62.42 14.19 6.14 0.00
Macquarie 45.49 -0.03 30.97 47.40 11.10 10.53 0.00
McMahon 52.58 -2.74 46.76 42.46 3.06 7.73 28.69
Mitchell 28.61 0.69 21.11 64.82 6.39 7.69 3.20
New England 30.24 0.95 13.74 53.95 4.75 27.57 14.15
Newcastle 59.44 0.61 44.25 33.16 11.69 10.90 23.06
North Sydney 34.34 0.23 20.04 60.85 15.54 3.57 5.32
Page 46.87 -0.61 35.65 46.21 9.04 9.10 27.19
Parkes 30.12 2.47 22.45 60.62 4.68 12.25 24.04
Parramatta 51.41 0.84 42.24 43.44 5.22 9.10 10.70
Paterson 50.37 10.15 39.75 41.12 6.32 12.81 49.90
Reid 49.27 0.12 40.61 46.75 7.02 5.62 16.07
Richmond 51.69 -1.29 34.33 39.22 15.48 10.98 14.97
Riverina 31.15 2.32 21.81 58.25 3.67 16.27 43.24
Robertson 46.89 -0.11 34.65 43.52 5.61 16.22 2.74
Shortland 57.43 0.22 48.23 36.43 6.30 9.03 16.15
Sydney 63.34 -1.31 44.15 31.67 18.17 6.01 12.92
Warringah 34.71 0.06 19.34 60.79 15.53 4.33 0.01
Watson 58.93 2.12 50.55 36.45 6.24 6.77 19.04
Wentworth 31.64 -0.64 18.98 64.02 14.33 2.67 0.01
Werriwa 57.46 5.22 50.21 35.07 3.23 11.49 44.24
Whitlam (formerly Throsby) 56.49 -1.28 43.80 38.75 5.97 11.48 16.78

About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.