Last year, I wrote up an analysis of the prospects for the current redistribution of federal electorates in NSW.
In late April, the final population data, provided to well below the suburb level, was released. In addition to updated population figures as of the end of 2014, the data also includes estimates of the population in each area as of August 2019.
When drawing the electoral boundaries, the 2019 projections are actually more critical. The law requires all seats to fall within 10% of the average as of the current day (the 2014 data), but fall within only 3.5% of the average as of the end of the projection period (2019).
Last year, I explained how the region covering the Hunter, the Central Coast and the North Coast was well under-quota, and I expected that the seat of Hunter would be broken up, effectively seeing western NSW lose half a seat and the Hunter lose half a seat.
However the latest data reveals that the proportion of the NSW population living in this northern part of the state is expected to decline even further. The four seats with the biggest drop in their quota between 2014 and 2019 are the four north coast seats of Cowper, Lyne, Page and Richmond. This doesn’t mean that these seats are shrinking – but they are growing well below the statewide average.
When you add up all of the seats in northern NSW, including New England, the Hunter, the Central Coast and the North Coast, this entire region (which currently has 12 seats) only has enough population in 2019 for 11.09 quotas. This means that, after transferring a small part of either Hunter or New England to a seat further west, this entire area would be under quota by a whole seat’s worth of population, which means a seat somewhere in the area. I expect this seat to most likely be Lyne, which is at risk of being pushed so far south by its neighbours to the north that it loses its main centre of Port Macquarie.
At the other end of the spectrum, the inner-city seats of Wentworth and Sydney will continue to outpace the statewide population growth, and by 2019 between them they will be 0.18 quotas over the target. This fast growth should pull Grayndler to the east. The marginal seat of Reid is also almost 0.07 quotas over the target, and will likely be pulled east by the inner-city growth, substantially changing the make-up of the seat in ways I don’t yet understand.
The deadline for submissions is May 22, and I’d expect to see the draft boundaries from the Electoral Commission some time in July.
There are also currently redistributions pending for federal boundaries in the ACT and Western Australia. While ACT should be relatively simple, in WA they are gaining a 16th seat so there will be substantial change there too, but I haven’t been following it as closely. We’re also undergoing a state electorate redistribution in Western Australia, and we’ve already seen draft boundaries released for the new ACT Legislative Assembly electorates. When the drafts are released I will produce maps for each of these redistributions.
One other thing: What happens if a double dissolution is called before the redistribution is concluded? If a state is undergoing a redistribution but is not changing its number of seats, nothing happens. That’s the case in the ACT, and would have been last time in Victoria and South Australia.
But if a state is increasing its number of seats (as in WA) or reducing its number of seats (as in NSW), a ‘mini-redistribution’ is conducted, which will ensure each state has the right number of seats, but will also result in disproportionate seat sizes.
In New South Wales, the two contiguous seats with the lowest enrolment, which I believe are Shortland and Newcastle in the Hunter region, would be merged. Correction: Shane Easson in comments points out that the two smallest seats are actually Farrer and Riverina, which are both Nationals seats.
In Western Australia, the two contiguous seats with the highest enrolment, which I believe are Canning and Pearce on the fringe of Perth, will be split into three seats.
Since Newcastle and Shortland are both safe Labor seats and Canning and Pearce are both safe Liberal seats, this would have a net +2 effect for the Coalition without a vote being cast.
In NSW, the two adjoining Divisions with the lowest enrolments at at 31st March, 2015 are Farrer and Riverina. Collectively, these seats are 803 electors below the combined total for Shortland and Newcastle.
I’d be very surprised if Paterson survives. Once you analyse that Division, you’ll find it’s made up of three parts: a Maitland end which will allow Hunter to transfer the surplus, (once a Division is abolished for the entire coast from the Hawkesbury to the border); a Port Stephens end which can supply Newcastle and a rural end which will serve the shortfall in northern coastal seats. So the abolition of Paterson is the least worst disruptive option for meeting the numbers criteria. Its abolition serves the last on first off principle. Paterson had been abolished in 1984 but was restored in time for the 1993 election.
I must admit I was shocked by the chronic shortfall north of Sydney…this has traditionally been a region of strong growth. What’s happened to the North Coast?
Haven’t finalised it yet but Ben and Shane’s thinking are pretty much identical to mine:
* Abolishing Paterson provides a clean-ish arrangement in the Hunter and lower North Coast. It has a few messy flow on effects (I can’t keep Pt Macquarie in Lyne, and a seat containing both PM and Coffs probably isn’t sustainable long term), but at least it can work.
* Upper Hunter into Parkes or New England, Camden into Hume. That’s the rural Divisions topped up.
* Engadine into Cunningham. That’s the south coast toppped up.
* Then it’s just a matter of dragging all the Sydney seats north and east. Losing Camden and Engadine leaves enough shortfall in Sydney to absorb the excess close to the city.
It will involve some major changes, but it does work quite logically. I will be very interested to see the other submissions for this one when they’re published.
One theory on the North Coast shortfall is the financial crisis causing people to delay their retirement and relocation plans. There’s a few early 60s people in my workplace who say “Well I planned to retire by now, but my super / investments lost so much money in the GFC that I’m still working.”
Of course, many of those people may still retire and move out of Sydney, just in the late 2010s rather than the early 2010s. So population growth on the North Coast might pick up again and come in a bit ahead of the current projections.
Moving Grayndler eastward would help Greens there although weaken their position in Sydney?
I have also identified the North Coast shrinkage and will be taking action in my submission but while in practice I will be abolishing Paterson, I am electing to do away with the name Cowper. Basically a subjective analysis as to which people we should esteem going forward, and I am of the position that we should preserve the name of one of our greatest poets over a man who lived only in New South Wales during the salad days of his political career.
I am also paring back representation in Southern NSW by abolishing Throsby which is a blight on the current electoral map, pushing all the south west seats east including bringing Hume on the cusp of the Sydney metropolitan area, however, it will keep most of its fundamental rural constituency up to Goulburn, albeit losing Yass and Young.
To prevent further western NSW turmoil, I have opted to bring Broken Hill back into Parkes and shored up adequate rural representation in the region which was upended by the abolition of Gwydir ten years earlier.
Abolishing two seats enables the creation of a new name, appropriately, Whitlam. I took Reid and moved it west towards Granville and Merrylands and inserted a new Sydney seat between Reid and Grayndler. I dubbed this seat, however, McMahon, a new iteration of the old Lowe and representative of the area former PM McMahon represented during his time in Parliament. Whitlam, takes most of the current McMahon’s footprint, slightly east of its current location. Fowler and Werriwa are for the most part in the same location they are now and I was able to preserve them in their current form.
I did address the weird gymnastic conundrum of Macquarie. I converted Macquarie into a mostly Hawkesbury seat running between Bilpin and Quakers Hill. Lindsay I dubbed the Blue Mountains seat, which has a very small footprint of a couple of Penrith suburbs on the other side of the Nepean, Chifley covers eastern Penrith LGA and some of the Mount Druitt suburbs to the north West, Greenway moves west up to Blacktown proper and Parramatta is now a long East-West seat stretching to Seven Hills, not unlike when it was once upon a time stretched westward to Sunnyholt Road.
There were a few subjective concerns I had about the current map, most of which I have attempted to address in the above and will be revealed in my submission to the AEC.
I still reckon you don’t need to make all that radical change, Paul.
But I’ll be interested to read your submission when it’s published.
I tend to go along with the comments of Shane Easson here, which brings me back to my comments from June 2014.
Firstly, there will almost be a realignment of many Sydney seats. A number of the southern Sydney seats are under quota and many inner city and coastal seats (in Sydney) are well quota.
Regional NSW is very different with every seat being below quota. Having said that I think that this is a most likely sceonio.
The Seat of Patterson will be abolished and with Maitland being transfered into Hunter, the Port Stephens region being transfered into Newcastle and rural areas such as Forster and Gloucester being transfered back into Lyne.
The Sydney/Illawarra region is the other area that will see a significant realignment. The Seat of Throsby would be abolished, and that Seat being relocated in Sydney. The Dapto/Port Kembla region would move into Cunningham and the rural parts, Bowral, and Moss Vale would be moved into Gilmore or Hume.
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