NSW late counting – day six

This will be the last ‘late counting’ post. At this point, it seems possible to call the results in Lismore, Gosford and The Entrance, in addition to East Hills which has seemed clear for a couple of days.

Labor has narrowly gained Gosford and The Entrance, while the Liberal Party has held on in East Hills as predicted in recent days.

The Nationals have also maintained their lead in Lismore, with the Greens failing to see a shift in how preferences flowed on Thursday and Friday’s counting.

East Hills

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far17,67548.89%18,47851.11%2,805
Projected21,33849.34%21,90650.66%3,310

Almost all primary votes have now been counted in East Hills, but no more two-party-preferred votes have been counted since yesterday.

On my original estimate, there should be another 500 postal votes, but it’s possible that we’ve seen the last of the primary votes.

Labor did slightly better on the primary votes counted today than I expected, but it won’t be enough to close the Liberal lead. On current figures, the Liberal Party leads by 803 votes. I estimate that this will close to a gap of less than 600 votes once the remaining pre-poll and absentee preferences are distributed.

Gosford

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far21,71050.08%21,64149.92%4,451
Projected21,83250.09%21,75249.91%4,462

Labor has increased their lead slightly, but more importantly, it appears that there are very few, if any, votes left to count.

At the moment, Labor leads by 69 votes. There are about 244 declared institution votes, which will favour Labor – on primary votes Labor leads Liberal by 6 votes, and this should increase after preferences are distributed.

It appears that the final postal votes have now been counted, and the total number is less than expected, which explains why the projection was previously assuming the Liberal party would regain the lead.

The Entrance

ALPALP %LIBLIB %Exhausted
Counted so far21,27050.18%21,12049.82%3,309
Projected21,35550.20%21,18149.80%3,336

Like in Gosford, it appears that most of the votes have now been counted, and the total postal and absent vote appears to be less than last election.

Labor is now leading by 150 votes, and that lead should extend when preferences are distributed for a batch of 173 provisional votes.

It seems like there are no more absentee or postal votes to be counted, but even if there are it seems not possible for the Liberal Party to regain the lead – even a batch of 1500 postal votes wouldn’t give the Liberal Party a lead of more than 160 votes.

Lismore

NATNAT %GRNGRN %ALPALP %
Counted so far19,95942.49%12,41826.44%12,03025.61%
Projected20,91742.60%12,93026.33%12,53725.53%
Projected 2CP22,41052.24%20,49147.76%

Provisional, enrolment and absent votes were added today. While the Greens position was strengthened, it wasn’t strengthened as much as was expected.

I’m still expecting some more absentee votes (which would slightly narrow the Nationals lead), and it’s unclear if there are any more postal votes, but the trend in preference flows has remained steady, and on that basis the Nationals should retain Lismore.

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