QLD 2015 – final counting update

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It appears that there are very few remaining votes to be counted in key seats in the Queensland state election, and it appears likely that the final result will be 44 seats for Labor, 42 for the Liberal National Party, 2 for Katter’s Australian Party and one for independent Peter Wellington.

If this is the case, Labor should be able to form a minority government with the support of Peter Wellington.

I’ve been tracking the race in eight key seats. Labor is competing with the LNP for the six seats of Ferny Grove, Gaven, Glass House, Mansfield, Mount Ommaney and Whitsunday. The LNP has also been competing with One Nation’s Pauline Hanson in Lockyer, and Labor and independent Chris Foley in Maryborough.

Chris Foley conceded defeat in Maryborough yesterday, where Labor is leading in the count by 1271 votes.

Leads in the remaining seats are all slim, ranging from 182 votes for the LNP in Mount Ommaney to 916 votes for the LNP in Gaven, but with small numbers of votes yet to be counted, and with counts not updated for a number of days in many of these seats, it appears that these margins are unlikely to change.

Labor is leading by 414 votes in Ferny Grove. While there is a danger that this result could be challenged in court due to the bankrupt status of the PUP candidate, this case wouldn’t be guaranteed to result in a by-election, and even so a by-election would not take place for some time.

Labor’s best chance to win a 45th seat came in Mount Ommaney, where the current margin is only 182 votes. After this, Labor is only behind by 313 votes in Whitsunday and 356 in Mansfield.

Hanson trails in Lockyer by only 183 votes, but it’s hard to see enough votes being counted to change that result, either.

With this in mind, I am going to be ending my Queensland 2015 results coverage here. I’ve updated my Queensland electorate map to reflect the new colours, and also updated my Queensland state election time-series map, which now shows the results of six state elections dating back to 2001.

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