QLD 2015 – day three counting update

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Rather than editing the original post, I’ve decided to post each morning covering the counting in key seats over the previous day.

Yesterday, I identified Ferny Grove, Glass House, Mansfield, Maryborough, Mount Ommaney, Redlands and Whitsunday as seats worth watching. I’ve now also added Gaven and Lockyer – two seats where a change in the two-candidate-preferred count revealed a close race. I wrote a specific blog post about Pauline Hanson’s tilt in Lockyer last night.

Excluding these nine seats, the ALP holds 42 seats, the LNP holds 35, KAP holds two, and one is held by Peter Wellington.

If all of these seats go to the candidate currently leading, the final result would be ALP 44, LNP 41, KAP 2, as well as One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and independent Peter Wellington.

ElectorateLNPALP/ONLNP lead
Ferny Grove11,22611,803-577
Gaven4,7984,605193
Glass House12,82612,028798
Lockyer1,7732,138-365
Mansfield11,37110,824547
Mount Ommaney11,90311,378525
Redlands11,75410,958796
Whitsunday12,32112,158163

Unfortunately, the ECQ this afternoon has taken down the two-party-preferred votes from a majority of seats, including Ferny Grove, Glass House, Mount Ommaney and Redlands, so the numbers listed above are those as of 12pm Queensland time.

Ferny Grove

No change up until the ECQ took down the two-party count this afternoon. The ALP’s Furner leads by 577 votes.

Gaven

We originally assumed that the LNP would easily gain enough preferences from sitting independent MP Alex Douglas and other minor candidates to defeat Labor, but the notional two-party-preferred count today has revealed a close race.

Three election-day booths have been counted, along with a large pre-poll booth. On raw votes, the LNP leads by 193 votes, and William Bowe projects the LNP’s margin to increase to a still-slim 226 votes as more votes are distributed. This seat could go either way.

Glass House

The LNP lead increased slightly from 756 to 798 today before the ECQ took down the two-party figures. Likely to be held by the LNP.

Lockyer

I blogged about this seat last night. Two-candidate votes have been counted in five booths, and Hanson leads by 365 off this small sample. If you project this preference flow to all primary votes counted so far, this lead shrinks to a very slim number – my model would narrow Hanson’s lead to only 24 votes. William Bowe says 92 votes – either way it’s very close.

Mansfield

The LNP lead in Mansfield increased slightly from 495 to 547 votes.

Maryborough

The ALP lead over independent Chris Foley increased slightly from 1054 to 1090. This doesn’t change much – unless there’s a big shift, we’ll have to wait for the full distribution of preferences to determine whether Foley can overtake Labor’s Bruce Saunders.

Mount Ommaney

The LNP lead increased from 425 to 525 before the ECQ took down the two-party count this afternoon. Likely to stay with the LNP.

Redlands

The LNP lead dropped from 974 to 796 before the ECQ took down the two-party count this afternoon. Likely to stay with the LNP.

Whitsunday

Still the closest LNP-Labor race. The LNP’s Jason Costigan increased his lead from 84 to 163 votes.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. In the Victorian election, prepolls favoured the Coalition almost as much as postals did. My rule of thumb is that if the LNP is leading at this stage by more than 0.5%, it’s probably won the seat. That goes for Glass House, Mansfield, Mt Ommaney and Redlands.
    My list of seats in doubt right now is just Gaven, Lockyer, Maryborough and Whitsunday: in three of them, just because we don’t know how all the preferences will go.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those pencilled in for Labor comes back into play: on the numbers, Ferny Grove is the most likely, but not the only possibility.
    But excluding that outside chance, I have it as 43 Labor, 39 LNP, 2 KAP, 1 Ind, 4 in doubt.
    Thanks for all these updates, Ben. You’re adding to the sum of human knowledge.

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