Comments on: Pat Farmer rolled by Matheson in Macarthur http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2416 Elections and politics in Australia and around the world. Wed, 08 Feb 2012 07:46:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Andrew http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2416/comment-page-1#comment-9592 Andrew Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:38:58 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=2416#comment-9592 I think Farmer's personal vote held just enough to save him last time. Around Camden, Narellan and the rural areas he maintained enough votes to hang on. He got between 57% & 68% in the 5 Camden booths, 58% at Harrington Park, and over 70% for the smaller rural boths like Cawdor, Catherine Field, Cobbity, Theresa Park and Orangeville (over 3000 votes in all). Whilst this is good Liberal territory there would still have been a lot of personal vote here. Matheson is well known in Campbelltown, but that's much more solid ALP territory and whilst he is easily elected and elects a second on his ticket each council election it's still only on 10% of the total vote. He's a nobody elsewhere so unless there is a general swing away from the government I'd expect to see the Liberal vote a few percent softer in the areas Farmer was strong, but no significant gain in Campbelltown. I just don't see Matheson as being a smart strategic selection. If the ALP put up a candidate with a reasonable profile in Camden they'll win this fairly comfortably. I think Farmer’s personal vote held just enough to save him last time. Around Camden, Narellan and the rural areas he maintained enough votes to hang on. He got between 57% & 68% in the 5 Camden booths, 58% at Harrington Park, and over 70% for the smaller rural boths like Cawdor, Catherine Field, Cobbity, Theresa Park and Orangeville (over 3000 votes in all). Whilst this is good Liberal territory there would still have been a lot of personal vote here.

Matheson is well known in Campbelltown, but that’s much more solid ALP territory and whilst he is easily elected and elects a second on his ticket each council election it’s still only on 10% of the total vote. He’s a nobody elsewhere so unless there is a general swing away from the government I’d expect to see the Liberal vote a few percent softer in the areas Farmer was strong, but no significant gain in Campbelltown. I just don’t see Matheson as being a smart strategic selection. If the ALP put up a candidate with a reasonable profile in Camden they’ll win this fairly comfortably.

]]> By: Nick C http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2416/comment-page-1#comment-9497 Nick C Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:57:49 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=2416#comment-9497 And according to the ABC Campbelltown Liberal councillor Jai Rowell won preselection for the state seat of Wollondilly. The only nominee apparently, which seems odd given that the seat would seem to be a certain Liberal gain. And according to the ABC Campbelltown Liberal councillor Jai Rowell won preselection for the state seat of Wollondilly. The only nominee apparently, which seems odd given that the seat would seem to be a certain Liberal gain.

]]> By: MDMConnell http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2416/comment-page-1#comment-9490 MDMConnell Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:06:34 +0000 http://www.tallyroom.com.au/?p=2416#comment-9490 I think Farmer wouldn't have had much of a personal vote left after his recent antics. Matheson at least presents a fresh face free of that sort of baggage. Obviously the polls suggest Labor would win a seat like Macarthur comfortably, but Matheson would have probably 5-10% chance of winning compared to 0% for Farmer. I think Farmer wouldn’t have had much of a personal vote left after his recent antics. Matheson at least presents a fresh face free of that sort of baggage. Obviously the polls suggest Labor would win a seat like Macarthur comfortably, but Matheson would have probably 5-10% chance of winning compared to 0% for Farmer.

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