More than two weeks after the Victorian state election, all 88 Legislative Assembly seats have been finalised, but there are a number of undecided Legislative Council seats.
Bowe splits up the possible winners into broad “left” and “right” groupings to have a sense of who will held the balance of power.
On the left, Labor has won 13 seats, the Greens have won 4 seats, and the Sex Party has won one. A nineteenth seat will definitely be won by one of those ‘left’ parties.
On the right, the Coalition has won 15 seats, and the Shooters and Fishers have won one. Two other seats will definitely go to parties of the right.
This gives the left 19 seats, and the right 18 seats. The remaining seats could be won by either the left or the right. If the left win two out of these three seats, then it will be possible for Labor to pass legislation with the support of the Greens and the Sex Party. If the right win two out of these three seats, Labor will need the support of both the Greens and at least one minor right-wing MLC to pass legislation: a much more difficult task.
At the moment, the most likely outcome would see the ‘left’ stay on nineteen seats, and the ‘right’ winning a combined 21 seats.
In this post, I will run through each region, focusing in particular on the six seats left to be decided.
We’re expecting these Legislative Council counts to be finalised later this week.
The Coalition has won two seats in this region, and Labor has won one seat.
The final two seats are a race between the Country Alliance, the Shooters and Fishers and Labor. The most likely outcome at the moment is that the Country Alliance and the Shooters and Fishers both win those seats.
One out of the Country Alliance and the Shooters and Fishers will definitely win a seat.
At the moment, the Shooters and Fishers win the fourth seat. For the final seat, the ALP gets knocked out before the Greens, and then Labor preferences elect the Country Alliance over the Greens. In this scenario, Sex Party preferences help elect the Shooters and Labor preferences help elect the Country Alliance.
The gap between Greens and Labor on the ABC calculator is 1,530 votes, or 0.35% of the vote. If Labor overtakes the Greens, then Labor will win on Greens preferences.
It is also possible that the Shooters and Fishers will be knocked out earlier in the count, which would result in either the Greens or the Sex Party winning that final seat.
If the Shooters fall behind Palmer United, then Country Alliance and the Greens both win seats on Labor preferences.
If the Shooters fall behind the Sex Party, then the Sex Party overtakes the Greens and win a seat alongside the Country Alliance.
Both of these possibilities for the Shooters are quite unlikely, based on a large gap in votes being overturned in late counting and through below-the-line leakage. The Shooters and Fishers are ahead of Palmer United Party at the key exclusion point by 4123 votes, or 0.94% of the total vote. The Shooters then lead the Sex Party by 5057 votes, which is 1.15% of all votes counted so far.
The Liberal Party has won two seats, and Labor and the Greens have each won one seat. The final seat is a race between the Liberal Party and the Sex Party.
At the moment, the Liberal Party is winning the fifth seat on the ABC calculator. If the Sex Party overtakes the Liberal Democrats at a key exclusion point, they will defeat the Liberal Party.
The gap at the key exclusion point is 3,411 votes, or 0.82% of the total vote. It seems most likely that the Sex Party won’t manage to close this gap, since they are relying on a significant amount of below-the-line leakage, despite relying on a large number of preferences themselves.
Labor has won two seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens have each won one seat.
The DLP is likely to win the final seat, but there are small chances that the seat could go to one of two other minor parties.
If the Liberal Democrats stay ahead of the Liberal Party, or Voice for the West stays ahead of the Sex Party, either party could win the final seat instead of the DLP, but the chances are quite small as these gaps are substantial.
South Eastern Metropolitan
Labor and Liberal have each won two seats. The fifth seat is a race between the Greens and the Sex Party.
If the Sex Party stay ahead of Labor, they win on Labor preferences. If the Sex Party fall behind, they will elect the Greens over Labor.
At the moment the Sex Party is leading Labor by 948 votes. There is a sizeable chance that the Greens could overturn this lead, but it’s difficult to predict.
The Liberal Party and Labor have each won two seats.
The final seat is wide open. The main contenders are Vote 1 Local Jobs, Shooters and Fishers and the Palmer United Party.
At the moment Vote 1 Local Jobs are winning the seat. The Shooters and Fishers are 1290 votes behind the Liberal Democrats at a key exclusion point: if they overturn that margin, they would likely win the seat.
The Liberal Party has won three seats, and the Greens and Labor have each won one seat.
The Coalition and Labor have each won two seats, and the final seat will go to the Shooters and Fishers.
Labor has won two seats, and the Liberal Party, Greens and Sex Party have all won one seat.