Comments on: CDP only running eleven candidates in Bradfield

By: Tony

Tony — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:34:47 +0000

Well we’ll all find out shortly. Mr Costello and Brendan Nelson have formally resigned.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/19/2718065.htm?section=justin

November 28 anyone ?

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:54:21 +0000

My proposed CDP ad (approximately 2 words per candidate):

“Not a refugee, environmentalist, atheist, sinner, non-Anglo Saxon, or homosexual? Never had pre-marital sex? Don’t like paying tax (unless it goes to persecuting above mentioned heathens)? Vote for the CDP!”

On the up side, if 4% of the vote is split between 11 candidates, assuming some get more than others, we may see the lowest vote total in an election ever (CEC excluded naturally).

By: Hamish Coffee

Hamish Coffee — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:46:53 +0000

It’s pretty stupid but it did get the media’s attention. I can only assume than Darby subscribes to the all media is good media belief.

I love that One Nation thinks that it’s still relevant enough for the media to ‘crucify’ them.

By: Ziggy

Ziggy — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 20:44:08 +0000

@Stewart J
Dont forget there is an independent Labor and a one nation candidate that
may help the DLP as well.
One Nation is likely to pass to the DLP (or possibly the CDP).
This may give the greens an opportunity but cant see them passing to One Nation. I dont know enough about the Independent ALP

By: Ziggy

Ziggy — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 06:55:18 +0000

@Stewart J

I am unaware of any discussions the DLP have had with the greens at this stage. But if you were a green who would preference? The CDP and the DLP work frequently together on preference deals, and I don’t think they would have paid out this sort of nomination fee if they didn’t have some sort of deal in place with the other minors.
One thing I can say is that the DLP in NSW market themselves heavily as being a labor party and many of their younger members are ex ALP members who crossed over when the started rebuilding in 2007. Bradfield is a seat that they can run a campaign in as well. Remember too that things aren’t good in the liberal party at the moment and many are upset that Malcolm is Pro CPRS, Pro Republican and many are looking at a chance to send a message. Its not likely that any liberals will cross to the greens, but these two minor parties allow them to send just that message. The greens can either participate or just throw their preference straight to the liberals. What would be you plan ?
As for the CDP and the DLP, I think its all in the Candidate and the campaign.

By: Stewart J

Stewart J — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 04:17:45 +0000

Ziggy – you assume that the DLP and CDP will preference each other before anybody else, without knowing who’s standing – so I assume there has been some sort of deal already? Or is that conjecture? The CDP may just preference the Libs straight off given this rather odd strategy of standing multiple candidates – so as to lock anyone else out. But seriously, I would not expect the DLP to get more than 8% all up, and less if there 10+ candidates. Even then lots of ALP voters (well, those over 40) are likely to remember the DLP, and not be inclined to forgive them either. Your assumption regarding the Greens preferencing the DLP ahead of the Libs is interesting too – are the DLP actively talking to Susie Gemmell, or is this an expectation?

By: Ziggy

Ziggy — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 00:28:27 +0000

@mick Thats right where do you actually get 11 candidates willing to stand in the one electorate ?

By: Ziggy

Ziggy — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 23:31:56 +0000

@Stewart J

I think this could very well be a unique opportunity for a DLP candidate.
There is an ever increasing move against the CPRS by both Liberal and ALP voters. The ALP voters would feel more comfortable with the DLP centre left econmonic policies, and would certainly favour them to any Liberal candidate. The other question is with the Liberals becomming more anti CPRS as the time goes on, the DLP candidate may be able to cash on their protest.
The CDP would certainly preference the DLP first after preferencing each other so the vote should all flow to the DLP before reaching the liberal candidate. The other thing is that the green candidate may pickup some of the ALP vote but would also certainly preference the DLP ahead of the liberal in an attempt to maximise their vote. This could very well be a battle between the DLP and Liberals. As for the refugees well the ALP/DLP policy are the same. Economically the DLP is probably more Labor then then the ALP so if the DLP put in a good candidate and run a reasonable campaign they’ll go alright.
As soon as the executive inform me of the candidate, I’ll let you know

By: mick

mick — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 13:56:43 +0000

holy moly ! that’s incredible !

By: Nick C

Nick C — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 13:15:44 +0000

Ah, well, I’ve found what seems to be the last time a party endorsed multiple candidates in a federal by-election: The Richmond by-election of 1957, when, on the death of his father, future party leader and deputy PM Doug Anthony defeated 3 other Country Party candidates who polled a combined 70% between them! Multiple endorsements were a common tactic of the Country Party at state level in NSW in those days.

Of course it may have happened at a general election since then, but that’s a lot more material to check through.