Newcastle lord mayoral – maps and tables

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Newcastlemayoralresults1-ALPA large swing of 14% to Labor has delivered the party the Lord Mayoralty for the first time in 15 years. Labor lost the lord mayoralty to independent John Tate in 1999. Tate was re-elected in 2004 and 2008, and replaced by Jeff McCloy in 2012.

On current numbers, Labor’s Nuatali Nelmes is sitting on 42.5% of the primary vote, followed by Brad Luke on 23.6%. Luke is the acting lord mayor, and was a Liberal Party member until recently, when he decided to run as an independent for Lord Mayor. The Greens’ Therese Doyle is coming third on 14%, followed by conservative independent Aaron Buman, a former councillor who ran for lord mayor in 2008 and 2012.

For the purposes of analysis, I have broken up votes between the four wards of Newcastle City Council, with special votes such as prepoll and postal votes grouped as ‘other votes’. It’s worth comparing the following table to the pre-election table.

Voter group ALP % Luke % GRN % Buman % ALP swing Total votes % of votes
Fourth 48.11 18.86 9.22 14.85 17.68 19625 23.94
Second 36.34 31.04 15.29 8.61 12.86 17318 21.12
Third 43.82 22.70 14.06 10.93 13.93 16619 20.27
First 42.82 19.12 19.78 10.06 12.94 16040 19.57
Other votes 39.78 27.45 12.10 12.61 11.63 12377 15.10

Labor topped the poll in all four areas, but did substantially better in the fourth ward and substantially worse in the second ward. The second ward was the best area for Luke.

For the Greens, their vote was highest in the first ward, and worst in the fourth ward. The party gained swings of between 3% and 3.6% in three wards, but actually suffered a tiny negative swing in the fourth ward.

Aaron Buman gained a 4% swing compared to his 2012 result, but still came fourth, and only managed to outpoll the Greens in the fourth ward.

Below the fold, I have included booth maps showing the primary vote for the four leading candidates, and the Labor swing compared to 2012. Please note these maps exclude two booths at the edge of the City of Newcastle: Beresfield and Minmi.

Primary votes for Labor candidate Nuatali Nelmes at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for Labor candidate Nuatali Nelmes at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Brad Luke at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Brad Luke at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for Greens candidate Therese Doyle at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for Greens candidate Therese Doyle at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Aaron Buman at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Aaron Buman at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Swing to Labor candidate Nuatali Nelmes at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
Swing to Labor candidate Nuatali Nelmes at the 2014 Newcastle lord mayoral by-election.
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14 COMMENTS

  1. Is Newcastle’s financial management OK currently? It will be interesting to see what it is like at the next election as we all know that Labor cannot manage money – spend spend spend money that is not there or theirs.

  2. Adrian Jackson – We don’t all know any such thing. That is a silly sweeping statement. Some ALP governments have managed finances better than others.

    The real problem is that many state government’s of whatever political persuasion have shown an inability to make coherent rationally economic and strategic developmental decisions on whether or not and how to dispose of state assets and manage the regulatory issues arising from those decisions.

  3. Doug – some examples of Labor financial mismanagement. 1992 in Victoria Labor (Cain/Kirner)left Kennett with a $32 billion debt which in 7 years Kennett reduced to $6 billion plus build plenty like Bolte bridge, Domain tunnel, New museum and MSAC to name a few. Federally we have seen the mess left by Rudd and Gillard so no need to elaborate on that. In 1994 Port Phillip Council (where I live) was created from the former Port Melbourne, South Melbourne and St Kilda council plus a bit of Prahran. All the councils brought no debt to the amalgamation except left dominated St Kilda who brought a $10 million debt. Rev Tim Costello was Mayor and other councillors included Melanie Eagle (John Thwaites wife). See what I mean !!

  4. The NSW ALP government 1995-2011 ran surpluses for 12 of 16 years and paid off the accumulated debt by 2005 (becoming the first in NSW history to retire debt). The current Lib-Nat NSW govt has had budget deficits for 2 out of 3 full years so far.

  5. Ben – lots of people get off topic, so what. I will remember this when you appeal for a donation. I have contributed in the past. Perhaps you are up set that the Greens in Newcastle came third as they usually do around the country mostly.

  6. @Adrian,

    It’s my blog, it’s my call when things go off-topic, and bringing up St Kilda council and the Victorian ALP of the 1990s is so way off-topic that I stepped in.

    You’re the one showing biases, not me. If you want to keep flinging insults I can help you out and ban you.

    Thanks for the donation but I don’t make moderation decisions on that basis.

  7. Slight correction:

    Brad Luke was the deputy mayor until 28 October of this year, when he was replaced via a draw from “the bucket” after a tie vote by Labor Councillor Stephanie Posniak.

  8. Sorry that my contribution set off that spat by Adrian – I like this blog but I got slightly irritated by sweeping statements.

  9. As a party insider I might be able to provide some insight into why Therese Doyle went into negative territory in some wards, they ran Therese’s campaign differently to Michael Osborne’s, different people and tactics, less doors were knocked and plenty of people seemed to be burnt out from the state election.

    The booths you show with high votes for Therese are inner city green belt booths, the outer regions take significant door knocking and contact to pick up the extra numbers. That’s why it was so low.

Comments are closed.