New Zealand Prime Minister John Key announced on Monday that the next New Zealand election will be held on September 20.
I’ll be providing a full guide to the election, but won’t be able to start until the new electoral boundaries are finalised in April.
In the meantime, this chart shows the polling trend since the beginning of 2012.
The Labour vote climbed through the first half of the term, but has stabilised since early 2013.
While the National Party has consistently remained ahead of Labour, the National Party’s potential allies are all bouncing along with a tiny vote, while the Green Party has stayed above 10% in most polls, meaning that a number of polls have put Labour and the Greens in a position to form government.
Four small parties (United Future, ACT, Maori Party and Mana Party) have been consistently polling very small figures, and will only be able to stay in the Parliament if they win electorate seats, and may not poll enough to win any additional list seats.
New Zealand First are polling more strongly, but without an electorate seat will need to win 5% to enter Parliament. New Zealand First have only passed the 5% threshold in two out of six polls so far this year.
