Nominations will be announced later today for the remarkable Senate by-election in Western Australia, due to be held on April 5.
With final nominations being announced today, candidates and parties will have until midday tomorrow (WA time) to lodge their group voting ticket, which will determine how above-the-line preferences will flow.
I’ve now completed a guide to the Senate by-election. It includes a front page detailing the results, the preference flows at the last election, the history of WA’s Senate delegation, and an assessment of the by-election. The guide will also include the list of lead candidates and some analysis of the group voting tickets once they have been registered.
In addition, I’ve produced a page for each of the 15 federal electorates. While the same candidates will be running across the state, each individual seat has different voting patterns, and each page includes maps, booth breakdowns and the results within that electorate. You can click through to those seat pages on the right-hand sidebar, or from the main page.
At the upcoming election, we’ll be watching to see if the Liberal Party’s vote drops far enough, and the vote for Labor and the Greens climbs high enough for the centre-left to win three seats, and whether preferences flow in a way that can produce a result that will alter the balance of the Senate. Polling suggests it is possible, but is by no means certain. This guide helps you understand where each party’s vote is most strongly concentrated.
There is also likely to be a huge number of minor parties running, and quite possible one of those parties could garner enough preferences to win a seat, either from the Liberals or from the centre-left.