The draft federal redistribution boundaries for NSW will be announced this morning. Unfortunately I’ll be in work and won’t be able to break the story (although generally it’s best to wait until Antony Green crunches the numbers). I will hopefully be able to post something during my lunch break. I’ll also try and get the Google Earth map ASAP, but if it is a big file like in the case of Queensland, it may need to wait for the weekend.
Update: I have work, but I have a few thoughts I would share with you all:
- Reid has been abolished, as has Lowe. Parts of both seats have created the new seat of McMahon, basically covering Canada Bay and Auburn, with a little bit of the other inner west LGAs.
- Macarthur has moved further into Sydney. I’m guessing this will make it marginal Labor. It has gained a small amount of Campbelltown from Werriwa and lost parts of Wollondilly. It has also gained the western outreaches of Liverpool.
- Cunningham has pushed as far north as Port Hacking, while Cook and Hughes have both become a lot more compact. Hughes has spilled over the Georges River into Bankstown.
- Wentworth has had no change, while Rosebery, the only part of the City of Sydney in Kingsford Smith, has gone back to Sydney. No other change to those seats. Very little change to Grayndler.
- Watson, Barton and Banks have been radically redrawn to cover the Canterbury-St George area, along with Burwood and parts of Bankstown.
- Fowler is much more compact.
- Mackellar, Warringah, Bradfield, North Sydney and Bennelong have all had relatively minor changes.
- Parramatta has shifted to the east and south to be centred much more on Parramatta CBD.
- Greenway has reverted from being a huge Hawkesbury seat to being a small Blacktown seat, while Hawkesbury has been returned to Macquarie.
- Dobell, Robertson, Charlton, Shortland and Newcastle have remained largely intact.
- Farrer has remained the same.
- Eden-Monaro has lost most of the territory west of the ACT to Riverina while gaining Bateman’s Bay.
- Calare has retracted back into the Central West, while Parkes has become the massive Far West seat.
You’ll be pleased to know that Macarthur remains. Reid and Lowe merged to form McMahon.
Wentworth and Grayndler the same, Sydney picks up Rosebery from Kingsford Smith, which I imagine will be good for Labor and bad for the Greens chances of coming second.
On the north coast seats, Richmond remains unchanged as expected, as does Cowper with the exception of a minor tidying of the boundary with Page around the outskirts of Grafton. Page also regains the north-eastern part of Tenterfield Shire which has been in Page prior to the 2000 redistribution. (Wondering if Page MP Janelle Saffin had some advance notice of this announcement given that the tiny village of Legume, where she held a media stunt with members of a backbench committee on Monday will now actually be in her electorate!)
Lyne gains Gloucester Shire from Paterson, and there are changes to the southern boundary of Paterson around Maitland. Major parties didn’t get what they were after.
Antony’s analysis is now up:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/
What do people think this will do to the Greens chances of coming second in Sydney and Grayndler?
Nothing at all, maybe a tad further behind the Libs.
Albo will get over 50% of the vote in any case.
I meant the Greens chances of coming second. Should have added second to my post.
You did the first time. It will make both Grayndler and Sydney a tad harder to come second, but not much harder.
I would say that Grayndler is likely as the Greens-Lib gap is only 2.03% on current boundaries. I think that the Libs are likely to go down slightly and the Greens up slightly. I think that the 5.55% Green Lib gap in Sydney, on current boundaries is a bit to high to overcome but I hope that I am wrong.
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionDop-13745-121.htm
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionDop-13745-149.htm