Comments on: Greens pick Adam Bandt for Melbourne

By: Didi

Didi — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 07:01:06 +0000

I think Adam Bandt is a superb candidate, but I also think Lindsay Tanner is an asset for all of us. Definitely one of the best members of this government. So glad I don’t have to make a decision re voting here.

By: Tom

Tom — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:25:31 +0000

I think that the Greens would have an even better chance in the ACT if it went back to 3 seats. The Greens would then if they campaigned well have a chance of overtaking the Libs and making another ALP versus Green marginal.

By: kme

kme — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 04:33:56 +0000

My tip for the future – keep an eye on the electorate of Fraser. I reckon Bob McMullan has built up a very substantial personal vote that is keeping a lot of potential Green voters in the Labor fold. If there’s a good Green candidate there when Bob retires, they should do quite well.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 08:27:43 +0000

I would think that Tanner`s profile would be weaker than the no more Howard government effect combined with the annoyed with the right-wingness of the Rudd government effect.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 07:44:20 +0000

I would argue that the lower vote for the ALP in the Senate rather suggests that there are Labor voters in Melbourne who have expressed a willingness to consider voting for someone else.

On the one hand, you have Tanner’s higher profile as a prominent cabinet minister, but on the other hand, the removal of the spectre of the Howard government likely will make it easy for the Greens to gain Labor votes. The question is which of those forces will prove to be stronger in Melbourne.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 07:04:24 +0000

I do not think that most of that difference is a personal vote for Tanner. Many people vote differently in the Senate and some of those vote that way because the support a minor party but don`t understand preferential voting and don`t want to risk the worse of two evils getting in.

By: Geoff Robinson

Geoff Robinson — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 06:41:23 +0000

The Senate vote in Melbourne suggests Tanner has a strong personal vote among the left milieu that is based in 1980s personal connections. He would be very difficult to unseat.Rudd’s leftish rhetoric on the economy will help also.

By: Tom

Tom — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 01:27:27 +0000

I agree that Bandt is unlikely to be a one-termer.

I think that as the current ALP government gets older then the ALP vote in Melbourne will go down as the government annoys more voters.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 00:35:38 +0000

@Rationalist

I disagree that if Adam won he would be a one-term MP. Once he was in office I tend to think he would be hard to budge. Also getting Greens elected in Melbourne, along with a few others, is a stepping stone to having the balance of power in the House of Representatives. Were this to happen, they would have tremendous power and responsibility.

By: Phil

Phil — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:27:40 +0000

Tom is right, people vote for who they most associate with, and it is likely that Green MPs would come from left-leaning seats, that have to date produced labor left MPs. It is a shame that it would be Tanner that would lose – he is to me one of the best Government ministers – but that’s the game – all sides will win and lose on their merits.

Objectively, I would consider Tanner a solid favourite and Melbourne most likely a Labor seat until Tanner retires, or failing that for an as yet unelected Green State MP within the Melbourne border to challenge. Time will tell.