Comments on: Random election stat

By: Nick C

Nick C — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:04:42 +0000

Yes, after further analysis I agree that there is good evidence of a personal vote for Kerry. In Sydney she got 42.7% of the BTL votes, although the total Green vote was higher. Meanwhile in 2004 in Grayndler John Kaye only got 37.5% of BTL votes. Interesting indeed.

By: Stephen L

Stephen L — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 07:09:12 +0000

The comparison with Sydney is interesting – overall Green vote higher in Sydney, but Kerry’s slightly lower. I haven’t checked out how many btls there are in Sydney in total, but the couple of candidates I looked at had more than in Grayndler, so my guess is Kerry’s proportion is significantly lower, suggesting that she does indeed have a personal vote in Grayndler which is higher than any she might have in Sydney by a fair way.

By: hob nob

hob nob — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:40:23 +0000

Dr Karls vote is also awesome, considering the circumstances. I reckon he’d have a chance of getting elected as an independent if he actually campaigned. HOR or Senate. What’s his beef with the Greens?

By: Nick C

Nick C — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:50:51 +0000

Answering my own question – I was thinking of having to figure out what proportion of votes to count from booths on the boundaries, but we don’t need to be that precise. Here’s what I’ve come up with for Grayndler based on voting at the 2007 state election: ALP 48.75%, Lib 17.69%, Green 25.68%. Would be pretty close after prefs.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:39:08 +0000

Yeah, and I don’t want to discourage you from posting innocuous statistics for fear of people reading to much into them, so I’ll promise not to do that again.

Has anyone looked at what the result in Grayndler would have been in 2007 based on how people voted in that area in the state election? (my skills aren’t up to doing that) I’m guessing the Green vote might’ve been higher, and if so, that might be a good indicator of the potential Green vote under favourable circumstances next federal election.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:10:38 +0000

That’s alright. She would be a good candidate, and she’s a local, but I didn’t want to make it seem that was what I was suggesting.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:03:30 +0000

Ok Ben, sorry for suggesting that. I meant it only half-seriously.

Could be a good idea though, but I wouldn’t want to annoy any local pre-selection aspirants by suggesting it too seriously.

By: Tom

Tom — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:53:11 +0000

The Greens coming second or first, in Grayndler and/or Sydney, would increase the proportion of undistributed first preferences from the current 0.19%

http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateTcpFlow-13745-NAT.htm

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:37:32 +0000

Um, I’m not suggesting anything of the like regarding Kerry running in Grayndler. I just thought that statistic was interesting.

By: Joel MacRae

Joel MacRae — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:20:26 +0000

Kerry Nettle in Grayndler? Interesting idea, given that I think she was the best rep the Greens have had. However, lets get Kerry elected, not to use her name to build the vote from 19% to 25%. Lets get her in when we have an outside chance of winning the seat. ie in two federal elections time.