Comments on: Death by a thousand polls

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:34:39 +0000

John Latham didn’t really do anything. He stepped aside as conservative leader when Joe Lyons crossed the floor and formed the UAP.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:34:11 +0000

I mean that they would dispose of two leaders without going to an election in the same term.

By: hob nob

hob nob — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:56:43 +0000

“If Turnbull was to join their ranks, it would be the first time that a party would dispose of two leaders without going to an election.”

Weren’t Nelson and Downer in the same party?

Anyways, I find it interesting that it seems a more recent phenomenon, perhaps correlated to the rise and dominance of polling? What did poor John Latham do anyways?

By: Simon Copland

Simon Copland — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 16:49:52 +0000

The Liberals are really running out of leadership candidates now. I think any shift to Hockey or Abott would be disastorous and I really don´t think there is anyone else (nothing that Bishop probably would have been a while ago if it weren´t for her missteps as deputy tresaurer). Proquar, which Bronwyn are you talking about? Not Bronwyn Bishop??

By: Proquar

Proquar — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:09:20 +0000

No mention of Bronwyn…. shame!

Nor Julie B for that matter… What is it with the conservative side of politics?

By: Oz

Oz — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:11:46 +0000

Nielsen has The Greens up 2 points to 10.

Their 58-42 is based on how respondents said they would allocate preferences. Based on preference flows at the last election it’s 57-43.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/06/nielsenjune2009.pdf

Pretty damn consistent polling for the 2PP.

By: Tom

Tom — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 01:50:56 +0000

Cleary should run in Wills because many of the people who would voted for him back when Keating was PM have become Greens voters, been pushed out by gentrification or died in the intervening 13 (or 16 if you count from last time he won) years. He demographic is still around in the Northern half of Wills.

By: MDMConnell

MDMConnell — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:53:02 +0000

In the past, Labor’s TPP has blown out into the low 60′s, so given the week they’ve had the Libs would probably take 56-44. Odd that Turnball’s plummeting ratings haven’t dragged the Lib vote down even further.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:03:51 +0000

It depends on how much of those minor party preferences come from the Greens. A 75% preference flow from Greens to Labor at the 2010 federal election is reasonably plausible.

Nielsen has 17% for Others. If, say, 10-12% of that is for the Greens, then a 71% preference flow isn’t outrageous, although it does seem a bit high, and the 2PP should probably be closer to the 56-44 measured by the other polls.

By: Dan

Dan — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:38:07 +0000

Remarkable really.

Minor point: ACNielsen’s 58/42 has Labor gaining 71% of minor party preferences, which I think is implausible.