Comments on: 5 things not to do when you’re trying to rig an election.

By: Peter K

Peter K — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:43:27 +0000

I wouldn’t be so sure it was rigged. Although president, Ahmadinejad was running as an outsider, Hanson type candidate appealing to the urban poor & rural masses with a strong message of nationalism and social justice. Similar to Venezuala a few years back where there were massive, ongoing protests and strikes by the dissafected middle classes, but Chavez romped back in with 60% + on the backs of the same type of voters who are much more numerous than the more upwardly mobile classes. In fact resentment at these classes as also played on by hanson here, could actually have assisted both Chavez & Ahmadinejad. In some ways Ahmadinejad also represents in these peoples eyes, more change than Mossouvi, who was prime minister for a decade and is closely linked with the long-time ruling elite of former presidents Khatami and the disliked and corrupt Rafsanjani. The high turnout, not favouring the so-called reformist candidate could be explained by both candidates having energised their bases – with Ahmadinejads base being much larger. As for variations in Ahmadinejad’s relative supprt levels, remember last time he was little known, an unknown quantity, now he is the president, so his voting support patterns could be quite different. The collapse in support for Karroubi can be explained by polarisation, with reformist voters deserting him for Mossavi, seen as the more likely winner. Also last time his main competitor on the ‘reformist’ side was the apparently widely disliked Rafsanjani.
As for regional variations, the only breakdown I’ve seen (on Wikipedia) gave Ahmadinejad about 45% in greater Tehran and only a minority of the overseas vote, with him winning all but two or three of the other provinces. Ben, it would be great if you could obtain a copy of the official breakdown.

By: Charles in Germany

Charles in Germany — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 12:54:46 +0000

Robert Fisk, who probably needs no introduction, had a piece about some secret letter revealing the actual poll results. No one can be sure if it’s genuine though:

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-secret-letter-proves-mousavi-won-poll-1707896.html

By: Stephen L

Stephen L — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:02:04 +0000

I’d add: Make the spread of votes credible. Having such bad results in Mousavi’s home areas was a bad look, as was having 70% of the vote from expats going for the person many of them left the country to get away from. Those two didn’t make a huge difference to the outcome, but helped focus people’s minds.

By: Zoom Zoom

Zoom Zoom — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 05:02:37 +0000

I think the (presumably guest) poster is mistaken. I think that most polls pointed to a victory for the encumbent, this mistake of the power that be was to attempt to embarrass the opposition by inflating the margin of the victory.