Barack Obama elected to second term, with at least 274 electoral votes.
50/51 states called
- Barack Obama – 303
- Mitt Romney – 206
5:18pm – That’s all for today from me. The only state left to be called is Florida. I’ll be back in the morning with a summary post including some coverage of Senate and House races.
4:16pm – I forgot to mention that the Republicans did pick up one Senate seat in Nebraska. The overall split is incredible. The Democrats are on track to win 24 Senate seats tonight, along with 2 Democrat-leaning independents and only 7 Republicans.
3:59pm – Senate summary: Democrats have retained seats in tough races in Wisconsin, Virginia and Missouri. The Democrats also gained Indiana and Massachusetts off the Republicans and Connecticut off an independent. Democrats also are looking like favourites to retain tough seats in Montana and North Dakota and look like they could gain another Republican seat in Nevada. Republicans also lost a seat to an independent in Maine. The final result looks likely to be 54 Dems (+3), 44 Republicans and 2 independents.
3:42pm – There are five states outstanding. Alaska won’t close for another 75 minutes, but those three votes will go to Romney. Apart from that, Obama is now leading in all four other states: Florida, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. Florida and Virginia are extremely close. His leads in Colorado and Nevada are larger, and a call is still waiting due to counting not having progressed as far. For some reason, NBC is not calling the single electoral vote in Maine’s second district. I haven’t been able to track down data explaining that race.
3:15pm – Obama has also won Oregon, Ohio and Iowa, which gives him a majority in the electoral college.
3:06pm – Romney has been declared ‘apparent winner’ in North Carolina by NBC. Obama will likely win Oregon, and then needs Colorado and either Ohio or both Nevada and Iowa. He has lots of options.
3:00pm – Obama has won California, Hawaii and Washington. Romney has won Idaho. So far Oregon hasn’t been called.
2:50pm – Minnesota has been called for Obama and Missouri for Romney.
2:43pm – I haven’t put much thought into this until now, but it appears possible that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote and lose the election. He’s currently leading by 1.5 million votes. It’s possible that this lead is illusory and will fade when California, Oregon and Washington report in, but it’s a substantial start.
2:34pm – Obama’s most likely path to victory at the moment includes California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington as safe states that haven’t been called yet. Then he’s the favourite in Ohio and Colorado, and he then needs either Minnesota, Nevada or Iowa. This easily gives him a majority without a need for Virginia, Florida or North Carolina.
1:52pm – I think Obama has basically got Ohio and Colorado. New Hampshire was just called by NBC. Adding in the Western Democratic states, Obama is up to 268 EV. If Obama’s vote holds up in Minnesota I’d be happy to call that, and give him the result.
1:46pm – I would be very surprised if Obama didn’t win. He is leading strongly in Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota. Add in those four states and the Western states of California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii and he’s on 278 EVs. While he still has a chance in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Iowa and interestingly Missouri, he doesn’t need any of them to win.
1:25pm – Obama is leading comfortably in Colorado and Ohio. If he picks up those two states he is home.
1:14pm – New Jersey has also been called now.
1:02pm – More seats called: Obama wins New York, Michigan and New Mexico. Romney wins North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana.
12:00pm – Obama has held Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, DC, Maine. Romney has held Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahama, Mississippi.
11:40am – Romney has now won South Carolina. Obama is leading 51-48 in Florida with 26% in. Romney is leading in Virginia and North Carolina but the numbers are very small.
11:32am – We have small numbers of votes in from Florida and Virginia. Obama is leading in Florida and Romney is leading in Virginia.
11:31am – I’m relying on the calls by NBC. They have called Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia for Romney and Vermont for Obama.
11:03am – I’ve switched to Seven Two who are showing broadcasts from US television – currently NBC.
10:40am – Small numbers of results are reporting from Indiana, Kentucky and New Hampshire. Romney is leading in Kentucky and Indiana (as expected). Obama is leading in swing state New Hampshire. Correction: those New Hampshire votes are tiny, based on a couple of towns that voted at midnight.
10:27am – I’ll be blogging all throughout the day today until we get a result. If you are following in Australia you can track when results are expected from each state on this handy guide produced by Antony Green at the ABC.